Prospects for Regime Change in Iran: Myth or Reality? - by Dr. Eric Lob
Professor Dr. Eric Lob Associate Professor at Florida International University The probabilities of regime change in Iran in the post-war period appear to be low. Israel and the United States primarily targeted Iran’s military and nuclear infrastructure and personnel. Despite threatening to assassinate Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in his bunker, they refrained from doing so and largely left the political establishment intact. One exception was Ali Shamkhani, Khamenei’s advisor, who oversaw five rounds of nuclear negotiations with the United States that Iran abruptly canceled after Israel had attacked it on June 13th. The fact that Israel targeted Shamkhani indicated that it intended to disrupt and sabotage the negotiations. President Donald Trump and his administration may have instructed Israel to spare Iran’s leadership to gain greater leverage in the negotiations within the context of coercive diplomacy. They may have also done so due to the American debacles in Afghanistan and...