Normalization of the relationship between Tehran and Riyadh by Dr. Miad Nakhavali

 




 Dr. Miad Nakhavali

CEO at Middle East Analitika

The relationship between Iran and Saudi Arabia has been strained for many years since both countries see one another as a rival in the region and engage in proxy wars throughout the Middle East. With Saudi Arabia being a largely Sunni Muslim nation and Iran being a predominantly Shia Muslim nation, the two countries have a long history of political and religious conflict. Over the years, these divisions have caused a variety of wars and tensions, including the continuing conflict in Yemen and the Syrian Civil War. The fact that Iran and Saudi Arabia back opposing sides in regional wars is one of the key causes of enmity between the two countries. For instance, Saudi Arabia has been leading a group of nations in a military campaign against Houthi rebels in Yemen who are thought to be supported by Iran. Also, Saudi Arabia has backed numerous opposition groups in Syria, while Iran has backed Bashar al-government. There have also been disagreements over other issues, such as how the two countries participate in the global oil market.


In recent years, there have been some indications of a potential thawing in Iran and Saudi Arabia's relations. For instance, in 2019, the leaders of both countries expressed a desire to hold negotiations and reduce tensions. However, the killing of writer Jamal Khashoggi at the Saudi consulate in Istanbul in 2018 furthered strained relations between the two nations. Since 2020, Oman and Iraq also hosted numerous rounds of negotiations between Iran and Saudi Arabia. And while everyone expected that the negotiations would end in one of the Persian Gulf countries, on March 10, 2023, Iran and Saudi Arabia reached a diplomatic reconciliation with China serving as their mediator. After Iranian protestors attacked Saudi diplomatic offices in Iran in 2016, following the Saudi execution of the renowned Shia preacher Nimr al-Nimr, Riyadh severed its ties with Tehran. 

Although this is a positive development and gives the two countries at least some space to discuss critical matters like the conflict in Yemen and Iran's nuclear program, we shouldn't get too excited quite yet because there are still a number of issues that have not really resolved. For instance, normalizing relations between Arab nations and Israel under the Abraham Accords is one of the most crucial issues for Iranians. A set of agreements known as the Abraham Accords was signed in 2020 by Israel and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Bahrain, Sudan, and Morocco. The Accords marked the first time in more than 25 years that Arab states have normalized relations with Israel. 

Iran's nuclear program is another crucial issue. The Saudis are extremely concerned about this initiative and have attempted to halt its development by putting pressure on their Western counterparts during the Vienna Talks. Yet, given this recent development in relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran, it is possible that Saudis will be more tolerant in their opposition to the program and the related negotiations. Last but not least, despite the possibility that the two countries would reach an agreement on some matters, such as the Yemeni conflict, it is unlikely that they will alter their positions in regards to backing various Shia-Sunni factions in the region, and it appears that the tension will continue. 

On the other hand, even while this deal sends a negative signal to Israel, we can't declare that the Abraham Accords are completely dead. It's possible that Saudi Arabia would decide to normalize relations with Iran and Israel simultaneously in order to create some form of regional balance. Also, using the Iran or Israel cards when necessary would offer the Saudis an upper hand in negotiations with each side. 

In the end, it appears that China is the ultimate winner of this arrangement for now, even though the US continues to declare that they would not let China use the vacuum in the Middle East region. The agreement between Iran and Saudi Arabia was aimed in two key ways by Chinese authorities. First, to ensure that their country would have secure access to energy sources by providing a stable and safe relationship between Iran and Saudi Arabia. Second, It has made it quite clear that the era of unipolarity is over and that China wants to be considered a global superpower capable of resolving a variety of international crises.









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