What does Putin's visit to Azerbaijan mean in the context of the changing global dynamics? By George Meneshian

 


Source: Chatham house

George Meneshian

George Meneshian

Middle East & Caucasus Analyst


On 19 August, Russian President Vladimir Putin paid a two-day visit to Azerbaijan. This was his first trip to the hydrocarbon-rich Caucasian country since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, two and a half years ago. During his stay in Baku, Putin met with his Azerbaijani counterpart, Ilham Aliyev. The two leaders discussed the flourishing bilateral relations and signed several agreements on cooperation in the fields of trade, investments, connectivity, and energy. The most significant was a deal on an extensive strategic partnership between the Russian state-owned energy company Gazprom and the State Oil Company of the Azerbaijan Republic (SOCAR). Russia is highly interested in its relations with Azerbaijan. Ten days before Putin’s visit, the Secretary of the Russian Federation Security Council, Sergei Shoigu, visited Baku on his way back from Iran. Other Russian officials have also visited Azerbaijan to demonstrate their commitment to boosting ties with the country.

Azerbaijani foreign policy under the Aliyev family has been characterized by a careful balancing act between regional and global powers, including Russia, Turkey, Israel, China, and the West. Currently, Azerbaijan is one of the EU’s most important energy partners, maintains close ties with the United States, and has supported Ukraine in many instances through humanitarian aid, free energy, and vocal support for Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. At the same time, however, Baku has enhanced its relations with Russia. Two days before the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Azerbaijani President Aliyev visited Moscow. During his visit, he and Putin signed a Declaration on Allied Interaction. According to the Russian president, this agreement is being successfully implemented. Indeed, since that day, the two countries have signed various deals, including intelligence-sharing and hydrocarbon trade agreements, while Russia is using the Azerbaijani market to evade Western sanctions. Another important agreement between Russia, Azerbaijan, and Iran was finalized last January, concerning the construction of the Rasht-Astara railway. This project is vital for Russia due to its role in the implementation of the International North-South Transport Corridor (INTSC), a corridor encompassing road, rail, and maritime routes that connect Russia with India, via Azerbaijan and Iran.

Azerbaijan is important for Putin’s regional policy for several reasons. First, Russian presence in this country guarantees Russia’s connectivity with important partners, including Iran, India, and the United Arab Emirates. Additionally, Moscow sees Azerbaijan as an ally in maintaining influence in the South Caucasus, now that Russia-Armenia diplomatic relations are problematic. While Yerevan seeks Western mediation in the Armenia-Azerbaijan negotiation process, Baku is more comfortable with Russia’s mediation. Lastly, Azerbaijan can be used by Russia as an alternative route for energy exports to the European continent. Recently, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced that Ukraine will not extend the gas transit agreement with Russia. The new Gazprom-SOCAR deal may provide a solution for Russia.

Azerbaijan’s traditionally balanced foreign policy seems to be changing. A day following Putin’s departure from Baku, Azerbaijan applied for BRICS membership. This comes during a period of tension between Azerbaijan and certain Western actors like the Council of Europe and France. Although Azerbaijan is not interested in ceasing transactions with the West, it is moving towards Eurasia, choosing to support regionalism and a Chinese/Russian-proposed multipolar international order that aims to replace the existing Western-led liberal global order. In addition, Azerbaijan has realized that it currently shares common interests with Russia, both economic and political. For example, both states counter the West's growing influence in the Caucasus.

In conclusion, Azerbaijan's recent diplomatic actions highlight a strategic pivot towards enhancing its relations with Russia, while also maintaining a careful balance with other global powers. This shift is driven by shared economic and political interests and a response to growing regional tensions and changing international dynamics. Putin's visit to Baku underscores this deepening relationship, marking a significant step in Russia's efforts to maintain its fading influence in the region. As Azerbaijan continues to navigate its foreign policy, it appears to be aligning more closely with Eurasian interests, reflecting a potential departure from its traditionally balanced approach between East and West.


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