Source: thetimes.com
Alia Yasmin Jawad
Geopolitical analyst and Senior Research Associate at the Middle East Institute Switzerland
After decades of tumult, brutal conflicts, deep division, and instability, it was only after December 2017 that Iraq managed to start rebuilding itself and experience peace. Its geographic positioning, however, as well as the division between Shiia and Sunnis, Arabs and Kurds, and all the external interests involved, have kept Iraq susceptible to strife. Thus, the most recent developments in the Middle East have provoked general concern not only among the country’s leaders but also among a large proportion of Iraqi civilians.
On the one hand, although the Iraqi state – despite its clear positioning on the matter - had not taken any particular official action against Israel since the latter started its war on Gaza in October of 2023, tensions spiked as the risk of a war between Iran and Israel intensified, and especially as Iranian-backed militias in Iraq sent explosive drones to Israel on several occasions. Secondly, concerns further deepened with Israel’s latest invasions of both Lebanon and Syria, particularly since the sudden fall of Bashar Al-Assad’s regime, in early December of 2024.
As a Shiia-majority state that had dealt with protracted, brutal, and bloody sectarian strife, and considering Iraq’s past struggles with mass terrorism, the coming to power of Ahmed al-Sharaa (also known as Abu-Mohamad al-Jolani) in Syria - former Al Qaeda member and ISIL leader who was imprisoned in Iraq for five years, before being released by the United States -, was received rather uneasily by Baghdad. Further developments, such as Turkey’s takeover of the northern part of Syria, Israel’s actions in the country, and the release of thousands of Syrian inmates by the new Jolani-led government – many of whom are believed to be former Islamist terrorists or militants - represent a great deal of worry for Iraq’s leadership, as a potential resurgence of terrorist organizations is a real threat to the country.
Despite its desire and efforts to reach a middle ground and achieve stability and cooperation across the region, Iraq’s leadership is still highly skeptical and cautious about Syria’s current administration. Ever since Assad’s fall in December 2024, the warmth and openness with which Jolani and his interim government were received by leaders around the world – particularly by Western officials – has provoked discomfort in Baghdad. The high-ranking officials in the Iraqi Government are yet to engage with Syria’s new leader, insisting on the fact that the latter and his government have not yet proven anything they preach through actions, but rather have just employed a rhetoric that sounds good to the world.
Iraq emphasizes the roots of Syria’s interim administration, the damage they previously provoked as a terrorist entity and the stances they held, as well as the continuing existence of 26 prisons at the border with Iraq (currently administered by the Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces), known to be hosting approximately 10,000 ISIL terrorists that represent a danger to the Iraqi state, in case they are released. Aside from these aspects, Baghdad is looking with concern at the future of Syria’s various religious and ethnic groups, maintaining that unless the current Syrian leadership brings everyone to the negotiation table and includes them in the new government, all the talk is futile and the future of the country and its people, as well as of the region, could be under threat.
To fully understand Iraq’s current stances and approaches to the recent shifts in the Middle East, a few more aspects must be taken into account. Firstly, Iraq’s past with the American involvement prior to, but mainly since the 2003 invasion of the country has, on the one hand, made the former militarily dependent on the US (at least to a certain extent) and, on the other, has left it open to the possibility of becoming a proxy used against Iran. Secondly, Iraq’s ideological ties with Iran and the latter’s military support during Iraq’s struggle against ISIL, have left the former open to a very strong Iranian influence, as well as to the possibility of becoming a proxy used by Iran against Israel (but also the US in other instances). On previous occasions, Iraq had unwillingly been used as a proxy state by both the US and Iran, and in the current tumultuous context, the country has often found itself highly pressured by both actors. On top of the already mentioned factors, Turkey has frequently represented a challenge to Baghdad, particularly due to its actions against the Kurds in the north of Iraq, violating Iraq’s territorial integrity on several occasions.
Thus, Baghdad now faces a complex conundrum, comprised by different risks and stakes depending on which direction it is tilting towards. The Iraqi administration’s goal is to avoid being involved in any conflict, and to ensure the safety of the country, having secured its 600 kilometers of border with Syria from possible terrorist intrusions, all the while looking to find a pathway to cooperation with the interim government in Syria. Iraq’s constant concerns about the possibility of being used as a proxy are valid, especially considering the heightened tensions between Iran and Israel lately, with Tehran, the Israelis (and the US backing Israel) pulling strings against each other and exercising their influence depending on their interests. Long-term, the country is working towards achieving and securing its independence from both Iranian and American involvements and influences, as the exercise of diverse continued external interests could make an already divided Iraqi society easily susceptible to imbalance and clashes.
At the same time, Iraq is highly aware of the fact that its neighbors - Iran, Syria, and Turkey included - are there to stay, and that, at the same time, the United States will always try to impose its particular interests on Baghdad, even if to lesser extents. Tilting too much in any of the directions the state might be pressured or pulled towards would be in the detriment of Iraq’s national interests and would represent a heightened risk to its national security and peace, and consequently, regionally, if matters would exacerbate.
With moderate leadership, and considering the current state of affairs in the Middle East, in order to ensure and preserve internal balance and security, the government in Baghdad thus seeks to find a pathway to communication and cooperation with Iraq’s neighbors. At the same time, the country is increasingly emphasizing the importance and legitimacy of its territorial integrity, as well as its openness to solid cooperation with other powers aside from the US, such as China.
Without having the necessary means nor capabilities to take any clear stance or action in the entire ongoing dilemma in the Middle East, Iraq currently focuses on strengthening its internal security, protecting and controlling its borders, and maintaining a balanced foreign policy, while aiming to improve its regional cooperation. Notwithstanding the state’s efforts to develop itself on all these spectrums and maintain balance on all levels in search for reaching long-term stability, the volatile status across the Middle East will continue to represent a heightened risk to Iraq for the foreseeable future.
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