Israel’s Role in Weakening Ankara - by Dr. Babak Shafiee
Containing Turkey After Syria: Geopolitical Rivalry and Israel’s Role in Weakening Ankara
Dr. Babak Shafiee
PhD in Geopolitics, Kharazmi University, Tehran, Iran
The geopolitical landscape of the Middle East has undergone a dramatic transformation following the erosion of the Syrian government's control. This event not only marked a turning point in Syria’s internal dynamics but also triggered significant shifts in the broader regional balance of power. With Iran reducing its direct military footprint and Russia scaling back its involvement due to its war in Ukraine, a power vacuum has emerged, attracting regional and international actors seeking to expand their influence. A significant consequence of this power shift has been Turkey's increased presence in northern Syria, including its alleged support for certain armed factions, such as Tahrir al-Sham, led by Ahmad al-Sahara. Concurrently, Israel has intensified its military activities near Damascus, aiming to counter threats from Iranian-backed groups and prevent Syria from becoming a stronghold for hostile forces.
The Kurdish forces in northeastern Syria, backed by the United States, have also played a crucial role in reshaping the conflict dynamics. By securing control over oil-rich and economically significant regions, the Syrian Kurds have strengthened their position as key actors. However, their growing autonomy has strained relations with Turkey, which views Kurdish territorial gains as a security threat. This complex geopolitical situation has heightened conflicts of interest among regional and global powers, leading to an unpredictable environment.
Shifting Western Priorities and Turkey’s Evolving Role
Following Syria’s fragmentation, many analysts anticipated that Iraq, Yemen, or Iran would become the next focal points of Western geopolitical strategies. However, recent developments suggest that Turkey is increasingly being viewed as a target for Western containment. Several factors contribute to this shift.
First, the war in Ukraine has weakened Russia’s global influence, altering the strategic calculations of Western powers. Previously, the United States considered Turkey a vital ally in containing Russian expansionism. However, with Russia’s military resources stretched, Washington no longer perceives Turkey as an essential buffer against Russian influence. Furthermore, Iran’s more pragmatic foreign policy has lessened the urgency of using Turkey as a counterbalance against Tehran. Consequently, Turkey’s geostrategic importance to the West has diminished, increasing its vulnerability to external pressures.
Second, Turkey’s assertive foreign policy, including its perceived neo-Ottoman and pan-Turkic ambitions, has generated friction with regional and global powers. Ankara's actions have led to tensions with Israel, Russia, Greece, and some European nations concerned about its growing influence in the Balkans and Central Asia. Turkey’s involvement in Syria has exacerbated its rivalry with Israel, while its disputes with Greece over maritime boundaries in the Eastern Mediterranean have strained its relations with NATO allies. Additionally, Turkey's involvement in conflicts such as Nagorno-Karabakh and its expanding economic and military presence in Africa have raised concerns among Western policymakers.
Israel’s Strategy to Limit Turkey’s Influence
Strategically, Israel views Turkey as a significant competitor in the Middle East. Unlike other regional powers—such as Iran, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, or Iraq—Turkey possesses a combination of military strength, economic resilience, and ideological influence that positions it as a potential long-term challenge to Israeli interests. Israel’s strategic doctrine, which emphasizes long-term planning and anticipates future geopolitical threats, has identified Turkey as a rising power that needs to be managed.
To achieve this, Israel has adopted a multi-faceted approach to limit Turkey’s influence. One key element involves leveraging its political and economic influence in the West to shape policies that constrain Turkey’s expansion. Israel’s strong ties with American and European political circles, as well as its cooperation with Armenian and Greek lobbies, have contributed to diplomatic and economic pressure on Ankara, particularly in areas such as defense procurement, trade agreements, and regional alliances.
Another critical aspect of Israel’s strategy involves exploiting Turkey’s internal vulnerabilities. The 2016 coup attempt against Erdogan’s government, seen by many as a pivotal moment in Turkey’s modern political history, has been interpreted by some as a potential indication of external efforts to destabilize the country. While the coup failed, it highlighted the vulnerabilities within Turkey’s political system and suggested the potential for future destabilization attempts.
Moving forward, Israel may support measures aimed at exacerbating Turkey’s internal divisions. This could include supporting Kurdish movements, contributing to economic instability through international financial institutions, and encouraging opposition groups within Turkey. By amplifying Turkey’s domestic challenges, Israel aims to keep Ankara focused on internal issues, thereby limiting its ability to project power abroad.
Broader Western Strategies and Turkey’s Diminishing Leverage
Beyond Israel, broader Western strategic interests also suggest a coordinated effort to moderate Turkey’s influence. Historically, the West has viewed Turkish power with caution, given its legacy as the center of the Ottoman Empire. European nations, in particular, have sought to prevent Turkey from re-emerging as a dominant force. This sentiment has been reinforced by Turkey’s growing economic competition with European markets and its increasing military assertiveness.
The United States, while still maintaining military cooperation with Ankara, has also adjusted its approach. Washington has deepened its alliances with Turkey’s regional rivals, including Greece, Cyprus, and the Kurdish forces in Syria. The presence of American military bases in Greece and the expansion of defense ties between Washington and Athens indicate a strategic realignment that reduces reliance on Turkey.
Additionally, Turkey’s economic vulnerabilities have made it susceptible to external pressures. The Turkish economy has faced challenges, including inflation, currency depreciation, and rising debt. These economic difficulties provide Western powers with leverage to influence Turkish policies through financial mechanisms, such as sanctions, trade restrictions, and investment limitations. If Ankara continues its assertive foreign policy, it may face coordinated economic measures designed to weaken its foundations.
Future Scenarios: Turkey as a Target?
Given these trends, Turkey may become a significant target for Western containment. As its strategic value to the West declines, Ankara faces growing challenges that could limit its foreign policy ambitions. The increasing rivalry with Israel, combined with Western economic and political pressures, suggests that Turkey may face similar constraints as other regional powers.
While Turkey has significant military and economic capabilities, its increasing isolation and internal vulnerabilities could expose it to destabilization efforts. If Israel and its Western allies successfully implement their strategies, Turkey may be forced to reassess its regional aspirations and adopt a more defensive stance.
Ultimately, Turkey’s geopolitical standing will depend on its ability to navigate these challenges. If Ankara can forge new alliances, diversify its economic partnerships, and manage its domestic tensions, it may withstand external pressures. However, if it fails to adapt, it risks becoming a primary target of Western containment strategies.
Conclusion
The shifts following the decline of the Syrian government have reshaped the Middle East. While initial expectations focused on Iraq, Yemen, or Iran, Turkey is emerging as a central concern for Western powers. With its diminishing strategic importance, increasing regional rivalries, and economic vulnerabilities, Turkey faces mounting challenges. Israel, a key driver of this strategy, is likely to play a central role in advocating for and implementing measures to limit Turkey’s influence. Through diplomatic efforts, economic pressure, and strategic alliances, Israel and its Western partners aim to constrain Turkey’s regional ambitions. As the Middle East's geopolitical landscape evolves, Turkey’s ability to withstand these pressures will determine its future as a regional power.
Comments
Post a Comment