The Last President of “Great America” - by Mohammad Hossein Emadi

 

Source: France24

Trump Through China’s Eyes: The Last President of “Great America”

Mohammad Hossein Emadi

In the autumn of 2016, during the height of Donald Trump’s first presidential campaign, I spoke with a university professor and prominent member of the Chinese Communist Party. When I asked about the possibility and implications of Trump’s victory, he replied with confidence: “We welcome this event. With his characteristics, he will be the last president of a mighty America!” Five years later, after Joe Biden’s win, I reminded him that his prediction seemed off. He responded, “The game isn’t over yet; the second half depends on the players’ stamina and the coaches’ strategies.” At the time, Trump’s return to power appeared improbable. Now, the question is: What strategy does China have in mind for facing Trump in this next phase? 

Chinese political tradition, rooted in deep reflection and long-term planning, views “the weaknesses and mistakes of the enemy” as the path to victory. Sun Tzu’s 2,500-year-old The Art of War teaches that the greatest triumph is to win without fighting. Chinese strategists see America’s decline as an internal process, requiring no direct conflict to ensure success. Henry Kissinger, in his book On China, notes that thoughtful, patient leaders turned a century of humiliation into opportunity for China. Today, this same school of thought holds that Trump’s extreme decisions hasten America’s erosion. Beijing’s approach, then, is to avoid confrontation with the U.S., remain strategically poised, and flow past obstacles like a stream of water. In their view, Trump’s shortsightedness, ego, narcissism, and the incoherence of his “mismatched team” are ideal catalysts for America’s diminishing power. Engaging in multiple military, security, and economic conflicts simultaneously is, in China’s strategic logic, a form of arrogant self-destruction.

China recognizes that challenging America’s military and cultural influence—its hard and soft power—is harder than competing economically. Yet Trump has undermined both. He has eased the political, security, and regional pressures on China that intensified under Biden. By signaling a willingness to trade Ukraine for concessions with Russia and questioning NATO’s relevance, Trump strengthens Putin—and, by extension, China, Russia’s key partner. This aligns with their shared goal of reshaping the global order. Beijing has offered to mediate between Trump and Putin, while Chinese firms stand to profit immensely from rebuilding Ukraine. A weakened Atlantic alliance opens doors for China in Europe, positioning it as a stable alternative. If America retreats from the continent, China—despite its differences—could emerge as a more dependable partner.

Trump’s withdrawal from the Human Rights Council, the World Health Organization, and cuts to development aid have bolstered China’s influence within the United Nations. This expands its reach in Africa, Latin America, and Southeast Asia. The faltering U.S. performance in the Middle East under both Biden and Trump has eroded the confidence of wealthy Arab states and fueled public anger toward America, paving the way for China’s deeper regional penetration. Trump’s dismissal of climate change concerns has also reduced international pressure on China, allowing it to claim leadership on environmental issues. 

Meanwhile, domestic challenges in the U.S.—a polarized society, inflation squeezing the poor and middle classes, and waning support for electric vehicles—keep China ahead in key economic races, despite Trump’s new tariffs, which have failed to unsettle Beijing. Perhaps most damaging are Trump’s threats to the sovereignty of Canada, Panama, and Greenland, alongside his softened stance on Russia’s aggression in Ukraine. These moves have inflicted lasting harm on America’s global credibility and hegemony. The reputation of the self-proclaimed champion of the free world, built over a century, has been tarnished—a gift to China at no cost. 

Chinese strategists see the world grappling with a multidimensional storm, rendering it nearly impossible for America to reclaim its former dominance through military, economic, or cultural means. During Trump’s first term, Beijing tested him, developing a strategy of flexible negotiations, resilience against pressure, and efforts to redefine its global role. Now, in the second half of this geopolitical game, China builds on those lessons while prioritizing the avoidance of direct confrontation with the U.S. It eagerly welcomes any event or distraction that delays a clash with Trump, confident that time stays on its side.