From Persian Spring to Arab Spring (Iranian uprising 2022-2023) by Dr. Miad Nakhavali

                                                                                  

 Dr. Miad Nakhavali

CEO at Middle East Analitika

While many do not presume that the Persian Spring in 2009 had a direct impact on the Arab Spring in late 2010, there is no doubt that the direction of developments in Iran, the nation's desire for change, and the role of the media all had a significant impact on the region's overall political and social environment. Since the establishment of the Islamic Republic in 1979, Iran,

one of the most powerful countries in the Middle East with an authoritarian regime, has had numerous national uprisings against the system. The 2009 uprising, however, was significantly larger and more widespread than any preceding movement up until that point. That was the year the administration chose to manipulate the election results in order to re-elect Ahmadinejad. 

However, despite the massive uprising against the regime in Iran, the protests were suppressed by the system, and all of its leaders were imprisoned in their houses. On the other side of the story, the MENA region has gone through a wave of development and transformation, the so-called Arab Spring, two years after the Persian Spring. Numerous uprisings against authoritarian regimes took place across the Middle East and North Africa in 2011, some of which resulted in the overthrow of the existing order, while others did not. Although authoritarian regimes have fallen in some of these countries, including Egypt, Tunisia, Yemen, and Libya, and people have imposed their will on their leaders, the situation in the MENA today is not much better and the region has turned into a fertile ground of extremism, fraud, poverty, and proxy wars. Why?

Despite the fact that there have been numerous demonstrations against the political and economic mismanagement of the regimes in these countries in recent years, the Iranian uprising in 2022, also known as the Woman Life Freedom movement, is unquestionably the most significant uprising in the Middle East in the last decade. What distinguishes the 2009 Persian Spring from the Woman Life Freedom uprising? What has the Arab Spring taught Iran? Why did the Iranian regime survive the Persian Spring of 2009? Is this time any different? What similarities or differences exist between the Arab Spring, Persian Spring, and the Woman Life Freedom uprising?

In the majority of earlier studies, academics used one or two variables to explain revolutions or revolutionary situations; but, when it comes to the Persian and Arab Spring, these variables were insufficient to fully explain the phenomenon. Hence, we must focus on the multidimensional components of the issue if we want to describe these revolutions or revolutionary situations. It goes without saying that structural elements and agency elements, which also have both domestic and foreign dimensions, must be taken into consideration if we want to understand the political, social, and economic inequalities that eventually led to revolutions, revolts, uprisings, or protests in the MENA.

Economic structure

From a global perspective, both Persian and Arab spring took place roughly at the same time as the world was going through a severe economic crisis, and from a domestic perspective, nearly all of the MENA countries had a history of fraud, corruption, and economic mismanagement. Additionally, the Corona Virus-related economic crisis occurred at the same time as the recent uprising in Iran known as Woman Life Freedom. On the other hand, the continuation of economic corruption and mismanagement along with the sanctions increased public dissatisfaction in Iran. However, while oil-rich countries like Saudi Arabia, Iran, Bahrain, Jordan, and Kuwait have so far managed to withstand the uprisings, tourist-oriented countries like Egypt and Tunisia were unable to control the situation. The obvious exception is Libya, which was attacked by the international coalition.

Political structure

From a global viewpoint, we know that the USA after 11 September have realized that in order to combat Islamic extremism in the region, reforms are necessary and they must choose between stability and democracy. Whether they had to decide between stability and backing authoritarian leaders like Hosni Mubarak or giving up stability and long-standing allies for democracy. According to some analysts, the uprising in the MENA region was not sparked by bottom-up reforms but rather by top-down ones led by the USA. They assert that the United States attempted to kick-start regional democratization during the Obama administration in accordance with its policy of the greater Middle East and fighting Anti- Americanism. However, we are aware that there was another side of the coin in these calculations, and from a domestic perspective, we can say that the most significant internal political factors that contributed to the uprising were the repression of opponents, intolerance or opposing opinions, absence of political participation, and the long-term rule of authoritarian leaders, and their families. All of these countries are ruled by monarchies, sultans, or other figures who have held office for more than two or three decades. The systems are autocratic, and there are either phony elections or no elections at all. The same family or group of people that control the government are unwilling to allow any other people to take part in political participation.

Social structure

Globally speaking, MENA societies were impacted by democracy and globalization, and its citizens realized they needed to transform into democratic societies. From a domestic standpoint, youth dissatisfaction caused by injustices, low quality of life, and a significant social gap ultimately sparked the revolt.

Cultural structure

Undoubtedly, globalization has brought about significant changes in people's culture and has led to a greater openness to Western culture. We could see that rap music or other forms of art had significantly increased throughout the uprising in almost all of these countries, and artists have been attempting to express their support for the revolt by producing works of art.

Political Agency

It also has both domestic and global dimensions. While it appeared that the USA was committed to making significant changes to promote democracy in the Middle East, Hamas's victory in the "democratic" election of 2006 came as a warning to the US that democracy which does not serve US foreign policy should be reconsidered. Hence, when the Arab Spring occurred, the United States and other European nations wanted to ensure that the next administrations in MENA would be supportive of the West in general and of the USA in particular. Furthermore, we must acknowledge that for the Western powers, a reliable supply of energy from the oil-rich countries was certainly more crucial than democracy. As a result, when the Arab and Persian Spring earthquakes occurred in the MENA region, the West acted selectively, supporting uprisings in countries like Iran, Yemen, Libya, Syria, Iraq, Egypt, and Tunisia while hesitating to support similar uprisings in oil-rich allies like Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Kuwait, and Jordan.

Aside from that, we also know that the media had a significant influence on the revolt in the region and many academics refer to it as a Twitter or Facebook revolution. In particular, we saw 24-hour television broadcasts like Al-Jazeera cover the event. While some countries, such as Iran, immediately expelled all foreign journalists during the Persian Spring or imprisoned them slowed down the internet, and filtered all social media, during the Arab Spring, on the other hand, reporters were present in Tunisia and Egypt up until the fall of the authorities and even afterward. Nevertheless, the most crucial domestic variables were class solidarity, the participation of civil society, and the support of religious leaders for the regimes. While the majority of those who took to the streets during the Persian Spring belonged to the middle class, there was no alliance between the poor class, middle class, and elite class. And this was one of the key reasons why the Persian spring did not ultimately result in the downfall of the regime. On the other hand, in countries like Egypt and Tunisia, this cross-class coalition has formed and

resulted in the overthrow of dictators. 

Regarding political participation, while in certain countries like Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the Persian Gulf countries it is a nonsense word and there are no real parties that are challenging the leaders, this was a very different situation in Egypt and Tunisia. We are aware that civil society was significantly more active in Egypt and Tunisia, which is another crucial factor in why these countries did not experience the same post-Arab Spring chaos as Iraq and Syria. It is also the same story about the support of religious leaders. While in Egypt and Tunisia, the leaders have lost their usual support of religious leaders, in other countries it was different and they have maintained their traditional links with the regime.

Military

None of the structural and agency variables that we have discussed up to this point support the notion that the Libyan situation could result in a collapse of the regime. First of all, Libya was an oil-rich country, and throughout the Arab Spring, they received sufficient backing from religious leaders and other influential figures. The majority of the army stood by Gaddafi and there was no civil society or political participation. Hence, these several elements may have persuaded the West that military intervention was necessary to accelerate the collapse of the Libyan regime. Nevertheless, we are still unsure of why the West did not make the same decision, for instance, about Iran or Syria. Let's now discuss the military's function in these countries and how it affects regime change. Since there hasn't been a clear external danger to Egypt or Tunisia for decades, it appears that the leaders have focused more on the security forces than the army.

 As a result, it appears that they have neglected the army. The other countries in the region including Persian Gulf countries, with the exception of Iran, are in a similar situation; they are allies of the USA and do not perceive any immediate external threats. In the Egyptian and Tunisian cases, the army did not feel threatened if the regime fell, though, because they knew they would still have jobs to go to. The military in these countries was professional and was not integrated into the ruling structure. Therefore, the military showed national solidarity during the revolt and refrained from supporting the leaders. Regarding Iran, though, the narrative was different. The army is completely integrated into the system, and the country is facing daily direct threats from the USA and Israel. Hence, if the dictatorship falls, everything else falls along with it, including the army.

Conclusion

Finally, we have to admit that it is very difficult to pinpoint one or two factors that will explain the reason why the Persian and Arab springs occurred in the region at that particular period and led to the fall of some regimes but not others. One variable may have had a greater impact in some circumstances than another, while in others it may have been a combination of them. Undoubtedly, the authoritarian regimes in the MENA region will fall at some point as a result of a number of domestic and international factors combining together.

In the end, by analyzing the current state of affairs in the region, we are able to conclude that neither the situation in the countries where the revolution took place nor in the other countries with still-in-power leaders is any better. The failure of these countries' revolutions and uprisings to bring about a social revolution, or a shift in the fundamental social norms of these countries, might be one of the most significant factors. When we look at these societies, we discover that fundamental issues like tolerance, women's rights, freedom, and democracy need to be re-examined—even in the smaller social units, like the family. It would seem that even though the concept of changing things at home was excellent, these fundamental improvements are yet to come.

Iran’s latest case

Now, I want to examine the most recent movement in Iran, which is known as Woman Life Freedom, to see whether it is different from previous uprisings. Everything began in September 2022 when Mahsa Amini was detained by the Iranian moral police on the claims that she was wearing her hijab improperly. She was then killed by being beaten in the custody. Following

it, there were massive protests in Iran's cities all around the country. How this uprising is different than the other one?

Noting at least four characteristics of this uprising will enable us to distinguish it from earlier uprisings in Iran. First of all, for the first time since the Islamic Revolution in 1979, women launched a campaign with the support of men. Second, the influential people of the Tehran Grand Market (Bazar-e-Tehran) supported this movement. Thirdly, this movement had the support of practically all celebs, including athletes and artists. Finally, the youth played a crucial role in this movement by reviving society's hope for change.

It is important to note that the most recent uprising in Iran occurred as a result of the regime's discrimination against women, whereas the initial uprising in Persian spring in 2009 was caused by the manipulation of the election results and Ahmadinejad's re-election. Of course, we must also include other issues like authoritarianism, economic mismanagement, corruption, and sanctions. However, Ahmadinejad's focus on the poor class during the Persian spring in 2009, prevented the middle class and poor class from uniting during that time. Due to the intensification of sanctions and economic mismanagement, it appears that this coalition has finally been established in the most recent uprising in Iran. Additionally, despite the fact that the protesters' primary goal during the Persian Spring was to topple Ahmadinejad and they did not specifically target the regime at that time, it appears that this time, they want to overthrow the regime and its leader. Moreover, unlike during the Persian spring, when the system still enjoyed the support of the traditional religious leaders, this time it has not happened. 

Nevertheless, there are several challenges before this movement can become a revolution. It is still very difficult to run the country after the regime collapses in Iran since the dictatorship did not permit civil society to participate in any political trends. The second and most crucial point is that, despite the regime's loss of all the factors necessary for its survival, the military's loyalty to the regime still exists. The Iranian regime, though, learned from the Arab Spring that it must act quickly and brutally to put an end to protests that are already underway, it must keep a close eye on all foreign forces to prevent them from interfering, and it must also prevent any foreign media from operating in the country. However, Iranian people also learned from the Arab Spring that regardless of the dictator, if the masses come together and support one another if the crossclass alliance occurs, if they can engage some of the elites in their campaign, and if they can reassure the military personnel that they will be safe after the revolution, then they will probably succeed in winning this battle.