Russia and Iran. Friends or foes? by Dr. Miad Nakhavali

                                                  

 Dr. Miad Nakhavali

CEO at Middle East Analitika

While there are numerous claims currently being made regarding Iran and Russia's proximity in light of the war in Ukraine, we need to look more closely at this relationship to determine whether it is tactical or strategic in nature. We know that, before the Islamic Revolution of 1979, the Shah of Iran supported the West and was even referred to as the American gendarme in the Middle East. Thus, Iran's perception of the Soviet Union as a country and communism as an ideology was exceedingly negative at the time of his reign. The relationship did not improve, however, after the victory of the Islamic Republic in 1979. The Islamic Republic chose to prioritize Shia Islamic ideology as its first priority for both domestic and foreign policy. As a result, Both communism and liberalism could not coexist with Khomeini's interpretation of Islam, and he desired to make his country independent of both the Eastern and the Western blocs. Moving forward, throughout the 1990s, Iran and Russia's relationship dramatically deteriorated as the Soviet Union was dissolving and Moscow's leaders made the decision to turn toward the West. As a result, due to pressure from the US, several of Russia's military agreements with Iran had to be terminated. However, this formula has been changed by Putin in the 2000s. Soon after taking office, he made an effort to improve relations with Iran by refreshing agreements on the sale of weapons and the construction of Iranian nuclear facilities. However, on numerous occasions, Russia disregarded its commitments to provide weapons to Iran and build its nuclear power plants on the agreed timeline. Moreover, despite the fact that Russia has often supported Iran in Security Council votes, we can also observe that occasionally they have voted in favor of sanctions against Iran. We also know that the former Iranian foreign minister Javad Zarif claimed in an interview that Russia attempted to sabotage the Iran nuclear deal just before it was signed. Why? 

First and foremost, we must understand that the relationship between Iran and Russia depends on the relationship between Russia and the US. Russian foreign policy is totally pragmatic, in contrast to Iranian foreign policy, which is characterized in terms of friends and enemies. As a result, Iran cannot be flexible in its dealings with the US because it is considered an enemy, whereas Russia and the US are still in communication despite the crisis in Ukraine. Therefore, in this scenario, the degree of collaboration between Iran and Russia grows whenever Russia's relations with the US weaken or get cold for any reason. So, it is clear that whenever Russia is at odds with the West, Iran is one of its most potent cards. Meanwhile, hardliners and Russophiles make up the majority of the Iranian government's foreign policy department, and in such a vacuum, Russia has a lot of space to maneuver and play its game as it wishes. 

Understanding this dilemma requires acknowledging that the main factor bringing the two countries closer together is the shared threat; otherwise, they would be fierce competitors in the most crucial industry, which is energy. We are also aware that Iran has been attempting for a long time to establish ties with the Caucasus and Central Asian countries and, consequently, to reach deals in the energy sector, but Russians are not allowing them to do so. We also know that Russia and Iran frequently disagree over how to divide and use the resources of the Caspian Sea and that Russian officials routinely reject Iranian requests to change how these resources should be used. Despite their tight cooperation in the Middle East, Iran and Russia have different objectives. For instance, In Syria, Russia is in favor of an agreement between all parties, whilst Iran wants to maintain Asad in office and eliminate all opposition. Additionally, while Iran attempts to strengthen its proxies in order to have leverage over Israel and Saudi Arabia in the region, Russia has a solid relationship with both countries and wants to maintain it. 

How has the war, in Ukraine, though, affected this relationship?

Undoubtedly, the conflict in Ukraine brought the two countries closer together. In recent months, we have witnessed numerous visits between the leaders of the two countries as well as the signing of agreements for cooperation in a variety of fields, such as the manufacturing of weaponry, cybersecurity, counterterrorism, health issues, and many other areas. Nevertheless, it is clear that Russia once more played a wiser game than Iran. While many analysts are discussing the significance of Iranian drones in destroying the Ukrainian infrastructure, it appears that, at least as a secondary Russian priority, Moscow could successfully share the blame for the war with another country and at the very least feel some relief in the international community. Also, by including Iran in the war, Russians may, on the other hand, persuade the West to reject a nuclear agreement with Iran, further isolating that country and eliminating a possible energy rival. Nevertheless, the leader of Iran, Ali Khamenei, would be extremely naive if he did not already know all of this, but he is left with little choice. From one perspective, the conflict with the West and numerous economic sanctions made Iran both weak and isolated, and from another perspective, he came to the conclusion that superpowers are unavoidably necessary in order to increase Iran's leverage in the region and among the international community. So, even if the Iranian leader is well aware that Iran's cooperation with Russia has consistently resulted in greater victories for the Russians, he is nonetheless limited in his ability to gain from this cooperation due to the ideological Iranian foreign policy. In the meantime, if the authorities in Iran could be more pragmatic, they could play as a mediator between Russia and Ukraine, increase the chance of a nuclear deal with the West, and find a new energy market for themselves in Europe,  but they have missed this opportunity.

Hence, in order to answer our initial question, we may remark that Iran and Russia's relationship appears to be more tactical in nature and based on a shared perception of threat rather than having any strategic underpinnings. Additionally, it will be difficult for them to become strategic partners given that both countries are keen competitors in the energy sector and have various political aspirations for the region and the world. Last but not least, the US and Europe continue to keep a close eye on Iran and Russia's new rounds of cooperation and collaborate to isolate both countries as much as they can. However, they should be aware that sanctions may not always be effective, and that they must use all of their resources to engage in negotiations with these countries.