Iran and Russia in the Balkans. (From the 1990s to 2023) by Dr. Miad Nakhavali

 

 Dr. Miad Nakhavali

CEO at Middle East Analitika

What is the relationship between Russia, Iran, and Serbia in the Western Balkans?

To properly respond to this question, it is necessary to comprehend the relationship between these countries in light of various critical elements, including the anti-Western sentiment, NATO threat, past unfavorable experiences, and of course profitable business dealings. During the Balkan War of the 1990s, we saw a series of sanctions, followed by the NATO bombing of Belgrade in the late 1990s, and EU support for isolating Serbia at that time. As a long-time ally of Serbia, Russia did not support NATO and the EU's policy of isolating Belgrade during the 1990s, nor did it support American involvement in the region or Kosovo's independence. In the meantime, since the 2000s, Russia's general policy toward the Western Balkan countries has been more opportunistic, and Russians see the Western Balkans as a chance to challenge EU and NATO calculations by taking advantage of the countries' inherent vulnerabilities. Thus, Russians had the capacity to form their own allies and local supporters due to the political, economic, and social vacuum in this region, giving them leverage over the EU and NATO.

In the other part of the story, the Islamic Republic of Iran since its foundation in 1979, and particularly after 9/11, has also been isolated by the West. This isolation is also a result of concern over Iran's nuclear program and its ambitious military goals. We also know that the US and EU have consistently emphasized that all options, including a military option, are on the table in order to stop Iran's nuclear program. Since its establishment, the Islamic Republic has been subjected to several US and EU sanctions, similar to those imposed on Serbia and Russia. Meanwhile, we do know that one of the Islamic Republic of Iran's key partners was Russia, which generally opposed Western sanctions and supported Iran's nuclear program.

When it comes to Iran's involvement in the Western Balkans, there are many ups and downs. While Iran attempted to assist the Muslims in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Albania, and Kosovo during the 1990s war with all available resources, including sending weapons, money, and even IRGC Quds soldiers, and training many Jihadi groups in the region, this role has significantly changed in the years after the war. By approving the Dayton Agreement, Kosovo, Albania, and Bosnia and Herzegovina made a commitment to expel all foreign forces, including the IRGC. Iran, which has made large investments in the area, was quite miffed by these countries' decisions and even disparaged the Bosnian leaders as being unappreciative. However, the Iranian revolutionary guards didn't come to the region with the aim of leaving. So, the Islamic Republic's approach in this area shifted after the late 1990s. They made the decision to let soft power take the place of hard power and tried to open as many cultural, education, Islamic, and other NGOs as they could in the region in order to keep their influence but with a low profile. 

In the meantime, we must acknowledge that Iran has lost some of its influence in the Muslim-majority Balkan nations as a result of their tendencies toward EU institutions and eventually integration. Due to this, along with Serbia's and Iran's proximity to Russia and the pessimism that Iran gleaned from the Muslim Balkan nations, it appears that relations between Iran and Serbia have improved during the past ten years. We are aware that the 2017 decision by Serbia to abolish the visa requirement for travel between the two countries and the arrival of numerous business delegations marked a turning point in the diplomatic ties between Iran and Serbia. Although this decision was terminated after the EU pressured Serbia to do so.

When we look at the ties between Iran, Serbia, and Russia in the Western Balkans, it appears that Russia is functioning more as a buffer between Iran and Serbia. Both Iran and Serbia require Russia to act as a superpower on their behalf in international affairs and to veto some decisions that are made against them. Yet, Russia also needs both Iran and Serbia to protect its interests in the Middle East and the Balkans. Also, it appears that Russia, Iran, and Serbia's negative perceptions of the West from one side and their historical negative experiences with NATO from the other side, as well as a variety of economic and military cooperation between these countries, helped them to warm up their relationship. Last but not least, we must remember that the road to collaboration between these countries is not without its obstacles. Although these countries cooperate in a number of economic, military, and energy-related areas, we are aware that Iran and Russia are, at the very least,

competitors in the energy industry. Since Serbia can no longer buy Russian oil due to EU sanctions, we know that It is looking for alternatives, including Iran. 

In conclusion, despite the challenges, Russia is likely to continue its co-optation strategy in the Western Balkans and back regional pro-Russian leaders, including Serbia. On the other hand, Iran is likely to maintain its soft power among the local Muslim population as well as its economic and military ties with Serbia. Though, we must not lose sight of the fact that the EU will continue to pressure Western Balkan leaders to avoid contact with both Iranians and

Russians.

Why is Albania their adversary? How bad are Albania-Iran relations now?

We must respond to this question once more in view of Albania's proximity to Iran and Russia's enemy. This means that the friend of my enemy is my enemy! In this regard, it is well known that Albania is a strongly pro-European ally and has close ties to both the US and Israel. It is also a candidate for membership in the EU, and recently declared plans to build a NATO airbase in the south. It joined NATO in 2009. Despite the fact that Russia did not support the US and EU's goal of isolating Serbia during the 1990s Balkan war, Iran supported Albanians and Muslims in Kosovo in their fight against Serbs by providing funding, militarization, and operational advice. We do, however, know that the Iranians and the Russians, as opposed to the Americans and the Europeans, had different agendas for Kosovo. Though, Albania and Kosovo appear to have chosen to align themselves with the US and EU, which neither Iran nor Russia felt to be a satisfactory option.

Nevertheless, it's important to highlight that Iran and Russia have never had exceptionally close ties with Albania, and the majority of these ties have been founded on average to below-average collaboration in terms of cultural and economic exchange. For instance, Iran tried to establish Islamic, cultural, and Quranic facilities in Albania after the 1990s war. However, Albanian authorities alleged that these institutions were used to finance terrorism and launder money, and they closed nearly all of them. Yet, this hostility has another angel. Albania's propensity to welcome opponents and rivals of these regimes makes it a shared enemy for both Iran and Russia. We recall that during the Russia-Ukrainian war, Prime Minister Edi Rama said that anyone escaping Russia as a result of President Vladamir Putin's order to mobilize the military may enter Albania without any problems. In his statements, he tried to implicitly support those who are against Russian aggression and possibly Putin. Albania did exactly the same thing a few years ago with the long-standing opponents of the Islamic Republic. 

The People's Mujahedin Organization of Iran (MEK) is an Islamist and left-wing political organization with a paramilitary structure that fought against the Islamic Republic and even united with Saddam Hussein against Iran during the Iran-Iraq war in 1981. After the end of the Iran-Iraq war in 1989, this organization was established in France and Iraq, but after the fall of Saddam Hussein in 2003, it was forced to leave the territory of this country due to the influence of Iran in Iraq. In 2012, Albania, in close coordination with America and Israel, decided to accept this group in its territory. Currently, 2,000 members of the Mujahideen live in the Tirana camp.

How would you describe the way Albania was cyberattacked and what was the motivation behind the attack?

If the Iranian cyberattacks in 2022 were the subject of the question, which led to the closing of the Iranian embassy in Tirana, the answer can be viewed from two different angles. In the first place, I think that Iranians sought to punish the Albanian government for its acts against the Islamic Republic, especially for hosting the opposition group MEK, by destroying the digital infrastructure. Second, Iranians have attempted to steal data on opposition organization members operating on Albanian soil, as well as data on those groups' relationships to the government and the government itself.

How has Iran's role in the region changed?

During the 1990s war, Iran tried to leverage the vacuum among the Muslims, particularly in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Albania, and Kosovo, and spread its Shia-Islamic principles. Soon after the beginning of the war, the Quds, Iranian IRGC's foreign arm, arrived in the region, some of them using the red cross masks and others in militia uniform. It is alleged that they collaborated closely with Al-Qaeda at the time and trained jihadi groups. It seems that the Islamic Republic intended to strengthen and consolidate its international position in preparation for future Western challenges at that time. However, all forces, including the IRGC, had to depart the Balkans by the end of the war, and once the Dayton Accord was ratified.

Furthermore, all of the countries which were involved in the 1990s war eventually showed a stronger inclination for US and EU institutions. As a result, in the years that followed, the Islamic Republic's hard power in the region dramatically decreased, which is why Iranians made the decision to adopt a new approach. In an effort to shift from hard power to soft power, the Islamic Republic founded a number of Islamic, cultural, and educational NGOs in the Balkans, particularly those that had a sizable Muslim population.

Yet, it is also important to note that Iran made some important post-conflict learnings, particularly following the war of the 1990s. First of all, they learned that they could not shout the same extreme Islamic Shia slogan that they do in Tehran or anywhere else in the Middle East, in the Balkans. Second, they figured out that although the Balkans may share some characteristics with the Middle East, its residents identify more with Europe than with Islam. Last but not least, Iranians understood that they have to develop a more pragmatic approach to their foreign policy, particularly with regard to the Balkans. Hence, in accordance with that new agenda and partly due to the proximity of Iran and Serbia to Russia, this Balkan country has emerged during the past ten years as an important partner of the Islamic Republic. Currently, there are numerous military, economic, cultural, and

educational collaborations between the two countries, and future developments in their

relations are already visible.

What can you tell me about the 2021 Iran-Russia cyber deal? How have Iran and Russia collaborated on cyber since then?

Although Iran and Russia are known to have cooperated on cyber activities even before 2021, this agreement signals a deeper level of cooperation between the two countries at all administrative levels in the areas of cybersecurity, technological transfer, and joint training. Despite the fact that Iranian hackers have been blamed for a number of attacks across the globe, it appears that Iran places a high priority on cybersecurity for defense. Additionally, there have been allegations that during the past 10 years, Iranian steel, nuclear, and other facilities have been the targets of assaults by Israeli and American hackers. Iranians are therefore acutely aware of the importance of developing their country's technology in the field of cybersecurity.

Iran, though, faces several challenges as a result of this development and cooperation with Russia. Iran wants to be independent of all other countries, so first and foremost, they want to domesticate their cyber technology but now they will be dependent on the Russians. Second, Russia and Iran continue to compete with one another in various industries. They are wary of one another's intentions, and Iran is reluctant to reveal to Russians any knowledge about its cyber infrastructure. Nevertheless, Russia itself faces challenges from the outside when attempting to work with Iran. We are aware that Iran's cyber capabilities will eventually hurt its regional and global adversaries, including the United States, Israel, Saudi Arabia, and other countries in Europe. Russians, therefore, want to take precautions and avoid provocations.

Furthermore, the recent unrest in Iran, which began about 4 months ago and is still going on, and numerous cyber-attacks by the opposition hacker groups like Edalat Ali, Tapandegan, and Black Reward, in turn, proved that Iran has still many vulnerabilities in terms of cyber defense. These groups in retaliation to the regime's repression have attacked national TV broadcasts, prisons, and street video surveillance and published a lot of information. Finally, despite all challenges, it can be concluded that Iran and Russia's collaboration in this domain will undoubtedly continue and perhaps get stronger. The war between Russia and Ukraine will undoubtedly lead to Tehran and Moscow forming a deeper cyber-cooperation, and in the future, we will see the consolidation and escalation of their joint operations at the national, regional, and global levels.

Do you think the Albania cyber attacks are an example of Russian knowledge and training being used natively by Iranian actors?

Giving a direct yes or no answer to this question is challenging. Iranian officials have undoubtedly applied many of the lessons they picked up from their Russian counterparts. However, we are aware that Iran itself is home to a sizable number of hackers who are very skilled in handling cyberattacks. A vast network known as the Islamic Republic's "cyber army" was created with the intention of disseminating and boosting government discourse online, eradicating rivals and opponents, attacking adversaries abroad, and protecting digital infrastructure. This army is attributed to the Revolutionary Guards and the Islamic Republic of Iran's Ministry of Intelligence, which is reported to have between 1,000 and 10,000 operators. As a result, in order to answer the question, we can state that the Islamic Republic was able to carry out cyber assault plans like Albania thanks to a huge workforce and experts and several internal and external training.