Impact of French elections on the Middle East by Damien Bruckard

Damien Bruckard 

CEO of Geopolitical Strategy and former diplomat


The recent French legislative elections may have left a shock in the media, but there will be almost no discernible impact on French foreign policy, including towards the Middle East. In France, foreign policy powers vest in the President with the National Assembly having very little influence over its direction.

For this reason, even during traditional "cohabitation" periods in French politics -- where the President comes from one party and the government, formed in government -- comes from another, the composition of parliament has almost no impact on France's international posture. While the socialist left coalition and the far-right parties both did well in the elections -- each with roughly a third of seats, with centrists also receiving about a third -- the fact that the parliament is divided will mean that members will have even less influence over foreign policy than usual.

Furthermore, we are unlikely to see a stable government coalesce in France for at least several months. More likely, there will be a transition period before a technocratic government, perhaps led by the liberal Republicans, will be appointed. And when that happens, a technocratic government will implement the will of the President, not wanting to rock the boat. Where the new political complexion of the parliament could have some impact is on migration policy. The far-right had been calling for strict restrictions on migration and clamping down on crime. Had they won an outright majority, there could be some changes. But given that the result was a hung parliament and there will likely be a technocratic one appointed in months to come, France will not radically change its posture on migration.


In the longer-term, however, the political gridlock likely to ensue will mean that migration challenges -- perceived as a major problem on the far-right and by much of the population -- will continue to mount, possibly aiding the political fortunes of Marine Le Pen as she prepares to run for President in three years' time. Overall, then, France's elections are unlikely to have any impact on foreign policy nor on migration but they will shape political views among the people which could lead to greater polarisation and therefore higher chances of a far-right President coming into power. And that, in at least three years time, is the only factor that could significantly alter France's relations with the Middle East, migration policy and broader foreign policy approach -- including to Ukraine and the European Union. 

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