Impact of Iran's elections on the Israel-Hamas war by Prof. Eric Lob

 



Professor Eric Lob

Associate Professor at Florida International University


The outcome of the Iranian election could impact the Israel-Hamas war and the chance of its expansion. At a superficial level, one could surmise that a victory for the conservative candidate, Saeed Jalili, would create a more confrontational policy toward Israel and consequently expand the conflict. According to this logic, if the reformist candidate, Masoud Pezeshkian, were to prevail then that would parlay into a more conciliatory policy and a higher probability of de-escalation. 

While these assumptions may possess some validity, they are complicated by the fact that the supreme leader has the ultimate say over foreign policy. Under his leadership, and since start of the war, Iran has walked a fine line between saving face and maintaining deterrence while avoiding a direct confrontation with the conventionally superior adversaries of Israel and the United States for the sake of regime survival. Even under the conservative president, Ebrahim Raisi, and several days before his death, Iran reportedly engaged in indirect talks with the United States in Oman to dial down regional tensions.

 While nothing is certain in such an unpredictable and volatile region, one would expect Iran’s pragmatic policy to persist as the conflict continues. Beyond Iran’s strategic calculus and its influence over regional proxies and partners, the expansion or de-escalation of the conflict will ultimately depend on the decisions and actions of the protagonists themselves. They include an Israeli government that has prioritized politics over peace and maximalism over moderation.

 An American administration that has been complicit in the conflict by enabling Israel diplomatically and militarily. A Hamas militia that refuses to relinquish its role as the principal provider of security and governance in Gaza and as the primary leader of the Palestinian nationalist movement in competition with the Palestinian Authority. And a Hezbollah militia that risks dragging Lebanon into another catastrophic conflict and deeper into crisis to champion the Palestinian cause and defend the axis of resistance.

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