Implications of US Presidential Elections for Iran by Harshit Sharma




Source: Reuters




Harshit Sharma  

Middle East Research Analyst



Keywords: USA; Iran; Donald Trump; Kamala Harris; Masoud Pezeshkian; JCPOA


Introduction

The upcoming presidential elections in the United States of America are being closely watched by Iran’s strategic community. Masoud Pezeshkian, a reformist who became the ninth President of the Islamic Republic of Iran in the runoff elections held on July 5, 2024, campaigned in favor of more diplomatic engagement with the USA in order to lift the economic sanctions that are crippling Iran’s economy for a long time. The outcome of the presidential elections in the USA will play a major role in whether or not Pezeshkian will be able to deliver on his promise.  


Republicans Vs Democrats

If the Republicans under the presidentship of Donald Trump make a comeback, then the possibility of a deal between the USA and Iran looks bleak. During his previous tenure, Trump not only withdrew the USA from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in 2018 but also started a ‘maximum pressure’ campaign against Iran. He also designated the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), a powerful multi-service branch of Iran’s armed forces, a Foreign Terrorist Organisation (FTO). The return of Trump would likely mean a more confrontational policy with Iran and less diplomatic engagement.    

The Ukraine war played a significant role in bringing Russia closer to Iran where the latter has reportedly been sending drones to Russia which are being used in Ukraine. Trump’s comeback may coincide with ending of the Ukraine war sooner if he pulls back US support to Ukraine along with a possibility of a thaw with Russia. This scenario may likely moderate the advancing Russia-Iran bonhomie which will have a negative consequence for Iran as it will only be left with China for strategic and diplomatic support. 

The Democrats have relatively been less confrontational and have also shown some inclination toward diplomatic engagement to deal with Iran. For instance, the JCPOA was signed during Barack Obama’s presidentship and even though President Joe Biden’s tenure did not witness a revival of the Nuclear Deal but, there was an ease in the implementation of the economic sanctions on Iran. Iran could sell its oil and gas at a much larger scale in the last four years than it could during Trump administration. 


Domestic Challenges on Both Sides

However, it cannot be said with any certainty that an ease in tensions is a certainty if a reformist is elected in Iran and the Democrats return to power under Kamala Harris in the USA. There will remain many complications on both sides. The Israel lobby in the USA and other Iran hawks in the system will pose a serious challenge for the US government to come to any meaningful terms with the Iranians.

In Iran, the Supreme Leader, who distrusts the USA and is clearly inclined toward following a hardline approach, remains the supreme authority to decide on foreign matters relating to Iran’s national security. Moreover, the hardliners still have a majority in the Majlis (Iran’s Parliament) and powerful entities like the IRGC will remain a formidable challenge for President Pezeshkian the majority of whom do not approve of a thaw with the USA.   


Conclusion

The outcome of the upcoming USA elections will reverberate in Iran and will tremendously impact its political and economic landscape. During the term of Rouhani, the inability of the Reformist camp to get the sanctions lifted after the Trump administration unilaterally withdrew from the JCPOA created a disillusionment among the public which played a role in strengthening the hold of hardliners in the government. Therefore, it is crucial for President Pezeshkian and the reformist camp to deliver on their promises to safeguard legitimacy which directly depend on who assumes the President’s office in the USA. 



 

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