Where is Turkey standing in the Gaza war? by Atilla Yesilada

 

Source: The New Arab


Atilla Yesilada

Istanbul-based senior partner of independent think tank Global Source Partners



Ankara is collateral damage if the war in Middle East spills over to Lebanon, Iran, as well USA. Turkish economy is woefully dependent on imported energy, the price of which is very likely to soar, if all-out war were to break out in the region. Additionally, Turkey could lose valuable exports to Iran, Middle East and North Africa if war spending were to curtail disposable income. Already, the cessation of Israeli trade has cost $7 bn in exports, and a net $2 bn, which sounds like a small sum given $265 bn in annual exports, but in industries like construction materials, the suffering is real.  

If war were to spread, Erdogan will be forced by his Islamist constituency and AKP’s new rival New Welfare Party to take even more severe measures. Erdogan may be forced to ban Azerbaijan oil exports to Israel through Baku-Ceyhan pipeline. Turkey could also lose the annual flow of 400K-600K Israeli tourists at a time when the industry is complaining about an extraordinarily strong TL cutting profit margins. 

A panic attack in global energy markets in response to escalating hostilities that drive Brent to or above $100/barrel could devastate Turkey’s shaky austerity program by ramping up inflation and cause the external deficit to widen again, triggering an exodus by foreign investors from TL assets. Finally, Erdogan outdoing all Moslem nations in terms for objecting to Israel’s cruel and inhumane attacks on Gaza Strip risks annoying Gulf Arab nations, which remain more reserved on the topic, because they are trying to arrange peace talks, and the USA, at a time when Turkey needs every penny of foreign financial investment and FDI.

All in all, despite Erdogan’s antisemitic inclinations, it is difficult to claim that he wants the war to continue. At home he is in a lose-lose situation. His partner MHP and the Islamist rival New Welfare have gone as far as demanding Turkey sends troops to Gaza, which is patently ridiculous, but illustrates that there is no way for Erdogan to satisfy the hard-core Islamist constituency which makes up to 10-12% of the voter base, which is already migrating to New Welfare.

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