Will Netanyahu and Ali Khamenei spark the big war in the region? by Dr. Miad Nakhavali

 




Source: The Jerusalem Post


Dr. Miad Nakhavali

Founder of Middle East Analitika


As Tehran remains in shock from Haniyeh's assassination, the countdown to Iran's retaliation has begun. Several scenarios are being considered for Iran's response. The first scenario involves targeting Israeli embassies, organizations, and institutions in neighboring countries, such as Azerbaijan or Iraqi Kurdistan. Another possibility is that Hezbollah, an Iranian proxy group, might launch attacks on Israeli territory. The third scenario is a direct attack from Iran on Israel. It now seems that Tehran is contemplating a fourth scenario: not retaliating at all if a peace agreement can be reached between Hamas and Israel. 

From my perspective, whether Tehran chooses one of these scenarios or a combination of them, each option will carry a cost for the regime. However, It appears that Tehran may opt for a response similar to its previous actions—targeted attacks with minimal casualties, aimed specifically at avoiding a major escalation, and possibly warning opponents in advance. In this case, Israel might respond in kind, as it did previously with the same scale. 

However, even "rational players" can miscalculate somtimes, which could be very alarming in the current circumstances. Tehran, as the leader of the Shia Crescent, must respond to Israeli provocations, but this response needs to be carefully calculated and this might be why Tehran has not responded immediately.

If Tel Aviv decides to retaliate against Iran, and if that retaliation exceeds the Iranian regime's expectations, it could escalate into a larger conflict. This would likely draw in more regional and international actors. In that case, we can expect the U.S. to fully support Israel, while EU countries might adopt a less active and more passive stance. China will likely adopt a neutral stance, while Russia may support Iran and attempt to weaken American influence in the region. Arab countries of the Persian Gulf might watch with interest, possibly pleased to see Iran weakened. Meanwhile, Iran could deploy its proxies from Baghdad to Beirut to target not only Israel but any countries opposed to it.

These are critical moments, and the international community must act proactively to prevent further escalation, as the world cannot tolerate another war.

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