Escalation in Ukraine Proxy War: Iran and North Korea's New Stances - By Ivan Stoykovich

 

Source:asia.nikkei.com

Ivan Stoykovich 

International Affairs & Political Risk Advisor 

The proxy war between Russia and the US-led alliance/NATO alliance has been taking place in Ukraine since Jan. 2022. has entered its most dangerous phase so far. US-manufactured ATACMS long-range missiles were launched last night at Russian Bryansk Region (OS: Брянский район) from the existing HIMARS missile launcher systems in Eastern Ukraine and Odesa region. Regardless of the fact that the attack was symbolic and largely unsuccessful since 5 out of 6 missiles were destroyed, it is still a dangerous provocation that the Russian leadership will undoubtedly respond to accordingly.

Based on the currently available information the response will be reciprocal, but in line with the usual MO, or "Russian manner "of conducting its military operations in Ukraine so far, which is basically a slow but steady "grind", not overreacting but maintaining steady pressure and conducting "step by step" destruction, of enemy forces over a long period of time. Obtaining steady gains in territory and the depletion of military capability until the enemies' final destruction. No radical military response by the Russian side is expected. Possible larger air and missile strikes on the few remaining functional airstrips in Ukraine will most likely take place in the upcoming days.

This course of action by Russia alongside the current MO of a long-term, economic "bleed out" of the US-led alliance of states will lead to a desired end result for Moscow. Regime change in various, predominantly EU states, is already taking place, alongside successfully changing the narrative/discourse power through hybrid warfare. Russia's involvement in Ukraine will most likely end with a collapse in the alliance's capability and overall willingness to fight this largely unpopular war and/or significant territorial gains.

The latest moves made by the Biden administration in its final days however show that the "deep state" in the heavily divided United States that the Biden - administration personifies, has no intention of accepting defeat in the long - run and "bowing out gracefully" from the international scene, or abandoning its pre-set goals serving no one else but the interest groups comprising "deep state" itself. 

It is expected that they will do whatever it takes until January next year to deteriorate the current crisis internationally to such levels that the new administration led by Donald Trump and his MAGA-loyalists, or the decision-makers in the Kremlin, won't be able to enter negotiations with one another due to de facto state on the ground and numerous "red lines" crossed. Thus, the Trump administration will not be able to take credit for ending the conflict during its mandate, and a prolonged and escalated conflict will also hinder its ability to heal the ailing US economy. Both are major promises given to the impoverished and neglected to work and middle-class Americans Middle whose votes led the MAGA movement to a landslide victory in the recent elections, thus enabling the re-entry of the Democratic party in the next US elections.

The Islamic Republic of Iran is expected to remain one of the closest allies of Russia in the foresable future. Based on the currently available information, no changes are expected in the leadership's course of action in this regard. Iran will continue to receive Russia's help both economically, militarily, and in intelligence and technology transfers necessary for Teheran to further develop its nuclear and conventional weapons programs, to economically sustain itself, to keep arming and providing logistical support for its "infantry" fighting Israel, and to keep providing all the necessary support for its allies now controlling a large part of Saudi Arabia dominated Yemen. For all of these goals to be achieved close alliance with Russia is paramount.

DPRK has gained a crucial ally in Russia, and the regime in Pyongyang has everything to gain in this newly formed strategic alliance with Moscow. Just like Iran, North Korea will receive 

help from Russia economically, mainly ensuring the sanctioned nation's food safety. Moscow will also provide highly advanced military solutions that DPRK will further develop and integrate in its massive but not very efficient military making a force to be a major force to be reckoned with internationally. Intelligence and civilian use technology transfers are also expected to take place benefiting both sides. North Koreans are on their side are expected to further enlarge their contingent fighting under Russian command, and to further allow Russia to utilize its advanced sanctions-circumventing capabilities, including its operations in SAR Macao, Singapore, and Malaysia.