Will Iran change its defense doctrine in the face of escalating tensions in the Middle East? - By Mohammad Khatibi




Source: amuedge.com


Mohammad Khatibi

Political Commentator and Broadcast Journalist


Short answer, not in the near future Iran is situated among numerous U.S. bases, has a NATO state neighbor, and troubled neighbors such as Iraq and Afghanistan. Persian Gulf States are in an active cold war with Iran and terrorism is rife in the Middle East. In contrast with U.S. allies in the region Tehran has no strategic ally and some call it “strategic loneliness”. China and Russia can only be relied on in tactical issues and have repeatedly sided with Iran’s rivals in the region.  Despite Western claims about Iran trying to maximize its “relative strength” which has an offensive nature, the leadership in Tehran has been aiming to maximize “relative security” in a troubled region. 

After 9/11 looking at Iran’s actions in the Middle East “security” has been a top priority. Tehran has just reacted to the ongoing threats in the region mainly started by the U.S. Tehran has not been the initiator of a change in the statuesque, an approach that can be traced in Iran’s Islamic revolution Leader’s speeches. Iran’s reactions have only been escalated to restore the balance of power in the region. Providing support for Syria and Bashar al-Assad came when the leadership in Tehran reached the conclusion that the government in Damascus was falling and that meant Hezbollah a long-standing ally would be isolated. Iran provided help for Yemenis when there were fears of Sana’a falling completely into Riyadh's hands. Tehran responded to the occupation of Iraq and later ISIS to restore security in its Western borders and maintain peace there. 

Tehran has a relatively low defense budget compared to its neighbors such as UAE, Saudi Arabia and Israel. Iran’s missiles and drones are much cheaper than the U.S.-made F-35’s and other weapons provided to regional countries by Washington. Also, investment in the quality and quantity of these weapons is in line with maximizing “relative security”.  As said, Tehran only responds to escalations in order to restore balance and its recent operations against Israel can be defined by this strategy. Iran had no role in Hamas operations against Tel Aviv and despite Western claims, Tehran has no direct control over the “resistance axis” factions and they operate based on their interests. 

The first “Operation True Promise” came after Israel targeted the Iranian embassy in Damascus. The second operation came in response to the assassination of the Hamas leader in Tehran and the Hezbollah leader in Beirut. The scale of a possible third will be based on Tehran’s perception of threat and looking at remarks by decision-makers it seems that a regional war is avoidable.  Tehran since the Islamic revolution in the country has been pursuing a strategy which seems to have two main pillars. First, Iran has been increasing indigenous military capabilities due to Western sanctions and missile-drone program is part of this approach. Second, providing support for groups which share similar values with Iran some call it “forward defense”. 

A change in Iran’s defense doctrine would be nuclearization however this possibility in the current situation is low due to several factors. First, the situation has not yet changed completely in favor of Iran’s rivals and the balance of power could be restored. A major change would be a full-scale Israeli war on Lebanon which may signal the de-militarization of Hezbollah. Second, operations against civilian infrastructure and nuclear facilities may force Iran to pursue a nuclear deterrent. However, voices in Iran suggesting pursuing militarization of the nuclear program are not loud enough yet. 



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