Is Iran Really on the Verge of Producing a Nuclear Bomb? - by Dr. Miad Nakhavali

 


Source: https://www.orfonline.org/



Is Iran Really on the Verge of Producing a Nuclear Bomb?

Miad Nakhavali - CEO Middle East Analitika


After decades of international debate over Iran's nuclear program, the question remains: is Iran truly on the brink of developing a nuclear bomb? Recent statements by Rafael Grossi, Director General of the IAEA, and EU leaders suggest there is little likelihood of reviving the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), also known as the Iran nuclear deal. Following the United States’ withdrawal from the agreement under President Trump in 2018, the accord has effectively collapsed. In response, Iran has accelerated its uranium enrichment, reaching levels of 60% purity and even higher, bringing it closer to the threshold required for weapons-grade material.


Experts are divided on how quickly Iran could produce a nuclear bomb if it chooses to. While some estimate that it would take Iran six months to a year to achieve this, others argue the timeframe could be even shorter. Nevertheless, producing a nuclear bomb involves not only enriching uranium but also overcoming significant technical and logistical challenges. Developing, assembling, and testing a deliverable nuclear weapon while maintaining secrecy would be exceedingly difficult.


Religious and strategic considerations also complicate the picture. Iran’s Supreme Leader has issued a fatwa declaring the production and use of nuclear weapons as haram (forbidden under Islamic law). However, some voices within Iran have called for revising the country's defense doctrine in light of escalating regional tensions. Still, even if Iran were to develop a nuclear weapon, using it would be highly unlikely.


The Consequences of Using a Nuclear Bomb


Using a nuclear bomb would almost certainly spell disaster for Iran itself. A hypothetical attack on Israel or U.S.-aligned Arab states would trigger devastating retaliation, particularly from the United States, which possesses the world's largest nuclear arsenal. Such retaliation could annihilate Iran’s nuclear facilities and broader infrastructure, potentially endangering the regime’s survival.


Furthermore, while hardline factions within Iran have pressured the regime to pursue nuclear weapons as a deterrent, Tehran understands the risks of escalating tensions to such an extent. At present, Iran appears to view its nuclear program primarily as leverage in negotiations with the West. Pursuing an actual bomb would eliminate that leverage, isolating Iran further and provoking harsher sanctions and military threats.


Strategic Calculations and Regional Implications


In the current geopolitical climate, Iran likely recognizes the catastrophic consequences of crossing the nuclear threshold. The leadership in Tehran is aware that any move toward weaponization would invite preemptive strikes from adversaries and intensify the risk of direct conflict. While the prospect of Iran producing a nuclear bomb cannot be entirely ruled out, the fear of direct attacks and the need to maintain negotiation channels may deter such a decision in the near future.


The broader Middle East region also faces heightened tensions due to uncertainties surrounding Iran’s nuclear intentions. Any miscalculation or misunderstanding between Iran and its adversaries could spark a wider regional conflict with global implications.


In conclusion, while Iran’s nuclear program continues to advance, its immediate goal seems to be leveraging its progress to gain economic or diplomatic advantages rather than building a bomb. Even if Iran eventually develops nuclear weapons, the regime’s survival instincts and regional realities make their use highly improbable. However, vigilance remains essential, as any misstep could unleash disastrous consequences for the region and beyond.


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