The Caspian: A Forgotten Strategic Depth - Dr. Babak Shafiee

 

Source: Marine Insight

Dr. Babak Shafiee

The Caspian: A Forgotten Strategic Depth

The Caspian Sea and its territorial waters were part of Iran until not so long ago. In 1813, 1828, and 1881, the Russian government separated these valuable lands from Iranian territory in the Golestan, Turkmenchay, and Akhal treaties. These Iranian-dominated regions were also governed by the Russians until 30 years ago, but after the collapse of the Red Alliance, Iran had a fiery opportunity to once again take a special look at its civilizational sphere and strategic depth. However, the situation has developed in such a way that after the collapse of the Soviet Union, Iranian governments have been involved in other issues instead of analyzing and making policies in the geographical environments and strategic regions surrounding Iran, especially the countries of the Caspian Sea. 

Currently, when we take a close look at the performance of newly established countries and regional and extra-regional countries, we realize that all of these strategic issues could easily have been a way to circumvent sanctions in line with Iran’s interests and strategic depth in the international arena and in Iran’s conflicts with the United States, but poor performance in domestic policymaking, lack of consensus in decision-making by officials in the security and legal fields, and their arbitrary actions in the Caspian Sea basin, have led to uncertainty in Iran among the newly established countries in the region and provided an opportunity for extra-regional countries to intervene in the Caspian Sea region against Iran’s interests. When we look at history, two points are important;

1- One of the best communication corridors is this safe and short northern route to reach the markets of Europe and Central Asia, which has been the center of attention of Iranian businessmen and politicians since the time of the Islamic and Byzantine governments and even in the Pahlavi era.

2- Reviewing the history of threats and wars, it becomes clear that most attacks have been imposed on Iran from the northeast and northwest, the heart of which is the Caspian Sea.

The consequence of poor performance in domestic policy-making and opportunism of other countries

Turkey: A country with an active and significant military and security presence in the Caspian Sea, and currently, this country's pragmatic policy is the most important threat to Iran's national security in the Caspian Sea region. Turkey is active in the Caucasus, Iraq, Syria, and recently in Yemen, Ukraine, and the Republic of Azerbaijan. Currently, Turkey wants to connect the civilizational area of Turkic-speaking and Islamic Ottomans from the Uyghur region of China and via Turkmenistan, the Caspian Sea, the Republic of Azerbaijan (by supporting the Republic of Azerbaijan in the Karabakh war to achieve a railway connection between the Republic of Azerbaijan and Nakhchivan) and Nakhchivan in Turkey, and from there to the Arab world and the Western world, and has considered a central role for itself.

China: Is building its own New Silk Road corridor, which will reach Baku via Turkmenbashi. China is currently one of the main buyers of Turkmenistan's gas. China is seeking to revive its heartland power in the world. It has a very active presence in Kazakhstan and currently has a part of Kazakhstan's oil and gas industry in its hands. Iran has signed a memorandum of understanding with the Chinese government that could increase Iran's bargaining power in the Caspian and provide Iran with strategic corridors of the New Silk Road.

Russia: It has moved its military base from the port of Makhachkala to Kaspiysk; as if it has realized the future military threats in the Caspian and is moving closer to the middle part of the Caspian. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, they have been keeping their newest warship in the Caspian Sea. With its precise policies in the field of energy, Russia is rapidly building and operating oil and gas platforms in the northern part of the Caspian.

Europe: They are implementing corridor plans to reach new gas sources and reduce the pressure on the Russians. They support and direct a plan called TRACECA. In terms of energy, they have parallel interests with Turkey, China, Israel and the United States in the Caspian region.

USA: It has no primary interests in the Caspian region, but it is strongly seeking to isolate Iran in the international arena, and this issue is no exception in the Caspian. The US continues to provide tacit and even armed support and an advisory presence in the region. In the face of economic tension with China, it strongly supports the American Silk Road or Lapis Lazuli, which has both overt and covert goals. It seems that if there is future tension between the US and Iran, the US will unveil its northern front in Azerbaijan, Turkey, and even Armenia.

Turkmenistan: By pursuing precise policies and international geographical fortunes, it has the support of European countries, Azerbaijan, Turkey, China, the United States, Russia, Kazakhstan, and even Iran. The country seeks to diversify the sale and export of its raw and processed energy reserves to the west, east, north, and south of its country and, contrary to the prevailing view, is a powerful, disciplined, and geopolitically significant country that is a unique power in the economic arena and international energy security. Turkmenistan is currently seeking to build the Trans-Caspian pipeline with the help of foreign capital, which will connect Central Asian energy to Europe. The country had the first powerful military fleet in the Caspian, which it built with the help of Turks and European multinational companies.

The Republic of Azerbaijan: A country with rich gas and oil reserves and, as its name suggests, is known as the Guardian of Fire. It has one of the oldest energy reserves in the world; So much so that in World War II, one of Hitler's goals in the sudden Barbarossa battle was to achieve these rich global reserves, and even events such as the nationalization of the southern oil industry after the nationalization of the northern oil occurred. Currently, the Republic of Azerbaijan is one of the main gas suppliers to Europe and it accomplishes this through Turkey and Georgia. The government of this country has been strongly supported by Turkey in the Karabakh war; as if it is now one of the puppets of the Recep Tayyip Erdogan government in the region.

Kazakhstan: It has one of the largest oil reserves in the world in the Kashagan and Tengiz regions. This country is seeking to diversify its energy export routes from the Caspian Sea. The Kazakhs have close ties with the Russians and the Chinese on military and economic issues.

Israel: It is seeking recognition from the Muslim governments of the region and has significant geostrategic activities in Azerbaijan in order to close the borders of Iran and to contain it militarily. 

It seems that the Caspian Sea is currently a forgotten strategic depth. If, in such circumstances, politicians, military personnel, and wealthy individuals do not reach a general conclusion on policymaking in this strategic depth, Iran's geostrategic and geoeconomic interests will face serious and irreparable threats, the consequences of which will affect future generations of this land.