The South Caucasus in the Current Geopolitical Framework - by Nina Miholjcic-Ivkovic

 

Source: aze.media



The South Caucasus in the Current Geopolitical Framework


Nina Miholjcic-Ivkovic

Independent International Relations Researcher


The South Caucasus, comprising three independent states, Azerbaijan, Armenia, and Georgia, is a strategically significant region at the crossroads of Europe, Asia, and the Middle East. The region has remained an important place for the contesting interests of regional and global powers. In the evolving geopolitical landscape on a global and regional level, including Trump`s return and the recalibration of the US foreign policy, the ongoing Russo-Ukrainian war, and the interests of Turkey and Iran in the region, assessing the South Caucasus' position is a simultaneously fascinating and complex topic. 

Examining the U.S. policy toward this region is crucial due to the recent shift in American foreign policy under Trump, which could have wide-reaching consequences for regional stability and the global balance of power. Trump’s often unpredictable and confusing rhetorical approach has posed a challenge for foreign policy analysts, leaving uncertainty about whether significant changes will occur under a new administration, particularly in foreign policy. Trump has already disrupted the existing geopolitical framework, particularly by making advances toward ending the Russo-Ukrainian conflict while sidelining the European Union.

However, in terms of the US approach toward the South Caucasus, it seems that Trump remains consistent with his more transactional approach to diplomatic dealings, considering the region as either not significant enough or not a priority at the moment. It is fair to conclude that the U.S. will be less engaged in the region and will likely react only if specific economic interests arise. In the event of an end to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, it is possible that Russia will resume its role as a regional hegemon and prioritize strengthening control over the post-Soviet states, including the South Caucasus, possibly with Trump’s blessings.

Turkey's presence in the South Caucasus, particularly through its support of Azerbaijan during the Second Karabakh conflict, could, to some extent, expand U.S. engagement in the region. Strengthening US-Turkey relations, particularly in the areas of counterterrorism cooperation and regional security concerns, could indirectly result in greater US support for Azerbaijan's positions in the region. Moreover, the US-Iran hostilities could further increase American backing for Azerbaijan, Iran’s regional rival, while potentially sidelining Armenia, a key Iranian ally. 

Although some key players in the new Trump administration may be more critical of Azerbaijan and closer to Armenia, this criticism is likely to remain rhetorical, without causing significant changes in current diplomatic relations. From a purely transactional perspective, Azerbaijan and Georgia, an important energy transit country, remain more important to US interests, which are currently more focused on energy agreements and infrastructure projects rather than broader diplomatic or political initiatives.


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