Trump, China, and Taiwan - by Dr. Babak Shafiee

 

Source: The Guardian

Dr. Babak Shafiee

PhD in Geopolitics, Kharazmi University, Tehran, Iran

Trump, China, and Taiwan: 

The Power Game in the South China Sea and the Future of Regional Security

Introduction

In recent years, the South China Sea and Taiwan have emerged as focal points of escalating tensions in global geopolitics, carrying significant implications for international security. The increasing militarization of the region by China and the growing complexity of U.S.-China relations have drawn the attention of policymakers and scholars worldwide. The policies of former and current U.S. President Donald Trump, particularly his "America First" approach, have exacerbated these tensions. Trump's aggressive stance toward China and Taiwan, especially since his return to the presidency in 2024, has intensified economic and military pressures in the region. This article examines the consequences of Trump’s policies, focusing on the role of the South China Sea, Taiwan, and the broader strategic competition between China and the United States.

Historical and Political Context

China’s emergence as a global economic power has redefined the international balance of power. Following the Industrial Revolution and its rapid economic growth in the 1980s, China, under the leadership of Mao Zedong and Deng Xiaoping, transformed into a formidable global player. The country adopted the strategy of "hiding capabilities and biding time," which prioritized domestic development while minimizing involvement in foreign affairs. This approach allowed China to emerge stronger from the 2008 global financial crisis. Eventually, in 2014, China surpassed the United States in economic terms based on purchasing power parity (PPP).

As China's economic and military power expanded, the United States, as the dominant global power, was compelled to confront this rising competitor. U.S. strategies to counter China’s rise can be broadly categorized into two approaches: the "smart" strategy and the "hardline" policy. The former focuses on leveraging international laws, treaties, and diplomatic alliances to contain China's influence, whereas the latter—favored by the Trump administration—relies on sanctions, tariffs, and an increased military presence in the Asia-Pacific region. Trump's "America First" policy, characterized by aggressive trade measures and a potentially closer relationship with Taiwan, exemplifies his administration’s hardline approach toward China.

The South China Sea: China’s Vital Space

Covering approximately 3.5 million square kilometers, the South China Sea plays a pivotal role in the global economy as a vital trade route, with over 90% of global commerce relying on maritime transportation through this region. China views the South China Sea as a strategic space essential for its economic survival and national security. Beyond its importance for China's trade networks, the region is also rich in natural resources, including vast reserves of oil and natural gas. However, the South China Sea is also a hotspot for territorial disputes, as other claimant states, such as the Philippines, Vietnam, and Malaysia, assert competing claims. China has declared exclusive sovereignty over nearly the entire region based on its "nine-dash line," which overlaps with the exclusive economic zones (EEZs) of other claimants.

To establish dominance, China has pursued a militarization strategy in the South China Sea, constructing artificial islands and reinforcing them with military infrastructure. The increasing Chinese military presence in the region has become a contentious issue for the United States and its allies, who view China's actions as violations of international law and a threat to the principle of freedom of navigation. The Trump administration, much like in the past, is likely to counter these perceived threats by increasing military operations in the region, particularly through Freedom of Navigation Operations (FONOPs), where U.S. naval vessels challenge Chinese territorial claims in disputed waters.

Taiwan: A Symbol of China’s Territorial Integrity

Taiwan has long been a sensitive issue in U.S.-China relations. Officially, the United States adheres to the "One China" policy, recognizing the People's Republic of China (PRC) as the sole legitimate government of China while acknowledging, without formally endorsing, Beijing’s claim over Taiwan. However, Washington maintains unofficial relations with Taiwan, supplying the island with advanced weaponry and strengthening diplomatic engagements—moves that have consistently provoked strong reactions from Beijing. China considers Taiwan an inseparable part of its territory and perceives any attempt at formal independence as a serious threat to its national security. 

Under a renewed Trump presidency, U.S.-Taiwan relations are expected to grow closer as a strategic measure to contain China. Arms sales, military cooperation, and diplomatic engagements between the U.S. and Taiwan could escalate tensions, increasing the likelihood of military confrontations in the Taiwan Strait.

China’s Strategies in Response to U.S. Pressure

In response to U.S. pressure and shifting regional power dynamics, China has developed and will continue to refine several strategies to counter what it perceives as external threats to its security and economic interests. One of China's key strategies is to reduce dependence on critical international trade routes, particularly the Malacca Strait. Through major infrastructure projects such as the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and the proposed Kara Canal in Thailand, China aims to create alternative maritime trade routes that bypass the Malacca Strait, a strategic chokepoint for global commerce.

Furthermore, China is significantly enhancing the capabilities of its navy. This includes the development of aircraft carriers, destroyers, and advanced submarines, all designed to expand China’s military reach in the South China Sea and beyond. The buildup of China’s naval forces serves as a direct response to the growing U.S. military presence in the region and underscores China’s ambition to assert itself as the dominant regional power.

In an extreme scenario, if U.S. economic and diplomatic pressure intensifies, China might consider a military option to reclaim Taiwan. Such a move could trigger a major international crisis, potentially drawing the United States and its allies into a direct military confrontation with China, escalating tensions to unprecedented levels.

Trump’s Strategy Against China

Trump’s approach toward China is characterized by direct confrontation and a strong inclination to use economic, diplomatic, and military tools to secure U.S. interests. Similar to his previous term, Trump is likely to weaken China’s economic position by imposing tariffs on Chinese goods and sanctioning Chinese technology firms. At the same time, his military strategy—especially in the South China Sea—aims to counter China’s growing military presence in the region.

Trump is also expected to strengthen ties with Taiwan, viewing it as a strategic ally in the broader competition for influence in the Indo-Pacific region. By enhancing U.S.-Taiwan relations, Trump will create serious challenges for China’s ambitions, sending a strong message that the United States will not tolerate China’s threats regarding sovereignty in the South China Sea and Taiwan. However, this approach carries significant risks, as it may provoke a military response from China, particularly if Taiwan moves closer to formal independence.

The "Inevitable War" Theory

In his book Destined for War, Graham Allison explores whether the United States and China can avoid falling into the "Thucydides Trap." He examines historical dynamics between rising and established powers, drawing on examples such as the rise of Athens and Sparta’s fear of its growing influence. Allison argues that the U.S.-China rivalry follows a similar pattern, where an ascending power (China) challenges the dominant power (the United States), often leading to conflict.

The "Thucydides Trap" suggests that war between China and the United States is not just possible but nearly inevitable unless both nations find a way to coexist peacefully. If Trump continues his hardline policies against China, history may repeat itself—where a rising power (China) faces increasing resistance from the dominant power (the United States), escalating tensions and the likelihood of confrontation.

Chess vs. Go: The Paradigm of U.S.-China Competition

A useful metaphor for understanding the U.S.-China rivalry is the contrast between the strategic games of chess and Go. Chess is a game of direct, linear moves with clear rules and objectives, reflecting the U.S. approach to international relations: assertive, direct, and confrontational. In contrast, Go is a more flexible and indirect game, where players aim to surround and control larger areas through subtle maneuvers. China’s geopolitical strategy mirrors the game of Go, as it seeks to expand its influence through strategic economic partnerships, military presence, and political maneuvering.

Thus, the competition between the United States and China is not merely about immediate conflicts; it is a long-term strategic struggle for control over global influence.

Future Scenarios

The future of U.S.-China relations depends on several factors, with three main possible scenarios:

1. Military Conflict: The most severe scenario involves direct military confrontation, particularly over Taiwan. If Trump continues his aggressive policies and China perceives a direct threat to its sovereignty over Taiwan, the situation could escalate into a large-scale regional war.

2. Tension Management: In this scenario, both China and the United States recognize the high costs of direct conflict and seek ways to manage their differences through diplomacy and cooperation. This would involve finding common ground in economic and technological domains without engaging in open military confrontation.

3. Long-Term Strategic Rivalry: The most likely scenario is prolonged strategic competition, where China and the United States engage in a "great geopolitical game," each striving to improve its position in economic, military, and cultural spheres without resorting to direct warfare.

Conclusion

With Trump’s return to the presidency, his policies toward China and Taiwan will continue to shape regional security dynamics in the South China Sea and beyond. The U.S.-China rivalry is unlikely to subside, and the risk of conflict will persist. However, the future of this competition is not predetermined. The strategies adopted by both powers, influenced by their leaders' decisions, will determine whether this rivalry leads to war, peaceful coexistence, or prolonged competition. Given the strategic implications of the South China Sea and Taiwan, the international community must closely monitor this power struggle, as the consequences of failing to manage tensions could be catastrophic.