War or Diplomacy with Iran? What Do Americans Think? - by Dr. Eric Lob

 

Source: axios.com


Professor Dr. Eric Lob

Associate Professor at Florida International University


On Saturday, April 12th, the United States and Iran will hold talks in Oman on restricting Tehran’s nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief. Earlier in the week, President Donald Trump stated that the talks would be direct, while Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei said they would be indirect. Trump also increased economic sanctions against Tehran to gain greater leverage in the talks. Before the talks were confirmed, Trump had delivered a letter through the United Arab Emirates to Khamenei demanding that he agrees to negotiate or confront catastrophic consequences in the form of military strikes. Since winning the popular vote in the US presidential election last November, Trump has claimed that he possesses a popular mandate to pursue his domestic and foreign policy agenda. As the United States enters another round of nuclear negotiations with Iran, the question remains whether the American public supports Trump’s decision to engage with Iran, impose sanctions against it, and wage war with it as a last resort.  

   

Before the Israel-Hamas war began on October 7, 2023, most Americans favored engagement with Iran. According to a survey conducted by the Chicago Council on Global Affairs in September of that year, 72 percent of Americans supported direct talks between both sides. This figure represented a 10 percent increase from 2010, when the survey started. On the one hand, Trump and his administration could be counting on similar public support for such talks. On the other hand, American public sentiment on engaging with Tehran may have soured since the start of the war, when regional tensions soared between Iran and the United States, not to mention Israel. As was the case with Barack Obama, Trump presumably perceives negotiations as a pathway to prevent Israel from dragging the United States into a war with Iran during a period of heightened tensions.

 

A year before the Israel-Hamas war in 2022, the Chicago Council on Global Affairs conducted another survey that found that 79 percent of Americans supported sanctions on Iran and its nuclear program, even if only 53 percent of respondents perceived it as a threat to the United States. Such sentiments, particularly if they intensified since the war, served as an impetus for Trump to issue an executive order in January to maintain maximum pressure against Tehran. They also incentivized him to increase sanctions on Iran ahead of the talks with it in Oman, in addition to seeking more leverage in them. At the same time, and according to the survey, a narrower majority of Americans opposed using military force against Iran’s nuclear program. These results were presumably the byproduct of America’s war weariness in the wake of its substantial loss of blood and treasure in Afghanistan and Iraq. Assuming these opinions and perceptions have not changed since the Israel-Hamas war, Trump would be acting against the wishes of the American public if he waged war against Iran in the event the talks stalled.  

 

To date, and less than three months into his presidency, Trump’s decisions and actions toward Iran have been largely, if not entirely, consistent with American public opinion. Specifically, he has insisted on engaging in direct talks with Tehran, increased economic sanctions against it, and threatened it with military action without following through. If Trump were to do so, the consequences would be catastrophic, not just for regional stability. They would also be detrimental or devastating for the future of US-Iran relations. As of 2019, 86 percent of Iranians had an unfavorable view of the United States after it unilaterally withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal or Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in 2018. This figure shows that American soft power and internal influence with the Iranian public have significantly declined, regardless of the direction domestic politics takes in the future.               

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Rethinking the Iran-Israel Conflict - by Dr. Liora Hendelman-Baavur

Image
Source: en.interaffairs.ru Rethinking the Iran-Israel Conflict in a Changing Geopolitical Landscape Dr. Liora Hendelman-Baavur The enduring animosity between Iran and Israel is one of the most significant challenges in international relations. At its core is Iran’s categorical refusal to recognize Israel’s right to exist, a position that goes beyond geopolitical disputes and fundamentally denies Israel’s legitimacy. This hostility is further complicated by complex regional and strategic dynamics, making the conflict appear resistant to resolution. The Iranian regime’s commitment to Israel’s elimination solidified during the 1979 Islamic Revolution, stands in stark contrast to Israel’s unwavering focus on defending its security and existence. As a result, meaningful rapprochement seems unfeasible. Yet, history shows that even the most deeply entrenched conflicts—especially those with ideological or strategic stakes—can evolve toward coexistence, though lasting peace may remain distant a...
Read more

Iran, USA, Israel — A Complex Trio? - by Richa Bhattarai

Image
Richa Bhattarai  Expert in International Conflict Management In the media today, the dominant narrative revolves around the hostile and contentious relationships of Iran with both Israel and the United States, while the United States and Israel maintain strategic alliances. However, what often goes unnoticed is the shared interests between Iran and both the United States and Israel not only during the Shah's regime but also under the post-revolutionary Islamic regime. The complexities of this trio can be simplified if we focus on mutual interests rather than conflicting attitudes. Setting aside the contentious issue of Israel's existence, especially in light of events post-October 7, 2024, it becomes crucial to examine whether the Iran-Israel relationship is inherently adversarial. The answer is mixed and largely depends on who is leading the government in Iran. Historical evidence indicates that during the Shah's regime, Iran and Israel had a relationship characterized by ...
Read more

The Last President of “Great America” - by Mohammad Hossein Emadi

Image
  Source: France24 Trump Through China’s Eyes: The Last President of “Great America” Mohammad Hossein Emadi In the autumn of 2016, during the height of Donald Trump’s first presidential campaign, I spoke with a university professor and prominent member of the Chinese Communist Party. When I asked about the possibility and implications of Trump’s victory, he replied with confidence: “We welcome this event. With his characteristics, he will be the last president of a mighty America!” Five years later, after Joe Biden’s win, I reminded him that his prediction seemed off. He responded, “The game isn’t over yet; the second half depends on the players’ stamina and the coaches’ strategies.” At the time, Trump’s return to power appeared improbable. Now, the question is: What strategy does China have in mind for facing Trump in this next phase?  Chinese political tradition, rooted in deep reflection and long-term planning, views “the weaknesses and mistakes of the enemy” as the path to...
Read more