U.S. strikes on Yemen fail to deter Ansarallah - by Mohammad Khatibi

Source: brookings

Mohammad Khatibi

Political Commentator and Broadcast Journalist

There is no end in sight for Yemeni operations in the Red Sea amid Israel’s continued onslaught on Gaza. In recent weeks, the U.S. intensified airstrikes on different locations and cities in Yemen, but these have failed to deter the Houthis from conducting more operations. Saudi-led coalition bombed the country for more than a decade but to no avail, and Riyadh came to the table with a reduced demand, and a fragile peace was achieved. The reason for the failure seemed to be a lack of ground presence and the failure of Saudi-Emirati-backed groups to defeat the Houthis.

 Now, there are reports of plans to enable these groups to start a war against Sana’a. Reports suggest that the U.S. is planning to provide these groups with aerial support. The plan's effectiveness should be questioned due to previous failure. During the Yemen civil war, Saudi-Emirati-backed groups started to take action against each other, and they were not capable of gaining territory.

The U.S. has been increasing its military presence in the region, and the arrival of new bombers and other military assets in the Middle East seems not to be intended solely for Sana’a but also for Tehran. Also, in recent weeks, Trump has threatened to take action against Iran if more operations are conducted from Yemen. Despite claims, Tehran has no direct role in Yemeni decision-making and has constantly said this. Houthis decided to start and expand their operations in the Red Sea and beyond as Israel ploughed Gaza. The operations were halted when Israel reached a ceasefire deal with Hamas. “This will stop when Gaza bombings stop”.

According to estimates, the total cost of the U.S. military’s operations against Ansarallah is around 1 billion dollars in just less than a month. Costly operations and bringing more troops without reaching a tangible solution are not what Trump campaigned for. Also, a direct confrontation with Iran will threaten the lives of U.S. troops and bases in the Persian Gulf region. It is widely believed that any attack on Iranian nuclear facilities will not result in the total destruction of Tehran’s nuclear program, and the attacks should be renewed in less than a year. However, the possibility of retaliation during this period is not imaginable. Also, the extent of Iran's retaliation may not be limited to U.S. military bases, and it could be directed at oil facilities, shipping in the Persian Gulf, and a direct attack on participating countries. 

Diplomacy and belief in facts on the ground may be a key to reconciliation in the region.