Middle East Analitika

  Source: Financialtribune Syed Shahnawaz (Simon) Mohsin Independent Political and International Affairs Analyst Concerns of regional conflict in MENA threaten world energy security as the possibility of attacks on regional energy infrastructure rises. The region produces about 30% of global crude oil, the vast majority produced by Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, and UAE. Three major oil transits or chokepoints—the Strait of Hormuz, Bab-el Mandeb Strait, and the Suez Canal—are in this region. About 40 million barrels of fuel pass through these waterways. Some argue that markets may underestimate the geopolitical and potential energy supply disruption risks. However, nuances must be considered. Palestine and Lebanon are not major oil producers. Thus, conflicts there do not directly threaten oil supplies. Nonetheless, a prolonged conflict involving Iran could lead to a significant increase in oil prices. In early October, oil prices increased to a two-year high after the US Preside...

Source: Vox.com Dr. Miad Nakhavali Foudner of Middle East Analitika In recent days and weeks, Israel has intensified its military operations, targeting not only high-ranking officials of Hezbollah and Hamas but also major figures like Hassan Nasrallah, a key force in Iran's influence over Lebanon. These strikes have led many analysts to argue that while the material losses inflicted on Hamas and Hezbollah by Israel could potentially be refilled through external funding and support, the loss of their charismatic leaders presents a much more profound challenge. Both organizations are heavily dependent on the leadership and symbolic power of these figures to maintain their strategic direction and inspire their followers. However, it appears that both Hamas and Hezbollah may have “possibility plans” in place to address such leadership voids. It seems that these organizations have evolved into more structured military-like entities, complete with an internal hierarchy and succession pla...

Source: Bloomberg news Dr. Farhang Jahanpour Former Professor and Dean of the Faculty of Languages, University of Isfahan; former lecturer at Cambridge, Harvard, and Oxford universities;  retired Editor for Middle East and North Africa, BBC Monitoring. Dr. Farhang Jahanpour Israel’s massive cyber-attack on Lebanon on 17 and 18 September, with the near-simultaneous explosion of 3,000-4,000 pagers and walkie-talkies, has killed a few dozen Hezbollah members and many civilians, including some children and health workers, has blinded and maimed hundreds of people and wounded many thousands. Hezbollah’s leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, in a long speech on 19 September, frankly admitted that the attacks had delivered a severe and unprecedented blow to the radical movement, but he said that the movement would recover from it. From an intelligence and technical point of view, the booby-trapping of the pagers was a sophisticated espionage operation carried out by the Israeli Mossad. There is...

Source: www.aspistrategist.org Syed Tahir Abbas Researcher at History, Culture, and College of Nationalities,  Southwest University, Chongqing, China. Throughout history, war has driven humanity's most significant technological leaps. From the tank’s debut in World War I to the atomic bomb in World War II, military necessity has consistently fueled innovation. Today, artificial intelligence (AI) is emerging as the latest tool to reshape warfare, proving pivotal in conflicts across Gaza and Ukraine. AI is no longer just a support system—it's becoming a primary actor, altering both strategy and execution in real-time. This article delves deep into how AI is changing the face of warfare, the ethical questions it raises, and its potential long-term consequences. AI on the Battlefield: A Game-Changer or Ethical Dilemma? The concept of AI in warfare may once have seemed like science fiction, but it has now transitioned from theory to practice. Militaries around the world are not just...

  Source: Chatham house George Meneshian George Meneshian Middle East & Caucasus Analyst On 19 August, Russian President Vladimir Putin paid a two-day visit to Azerbaijan. This was his first trip to the hydrocarbon-rich Caucasian country since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, two and a half years ago. During his stay in Baku, Putin met with his Azerbaijani counterpart, Ilham Aliyev. The two leaders discussed the flourishing bilateral relations and signed several agreements on cooperation in the fields of trade, investments, connectivity, and energy. The most significant was a deal on an extensive strategic partnership between the Russian state-owned energy company Gazprom and the State Oil Company of the Azerbaijan Republic (SOCAR). Russia is highly interested in its relations with Azerbaijan. Ten days before Putin’s visit, the Secretary of the Russian Federation Security Council, Sergei Shoigu, visited Baku on his way back from Iran. Other Russian officials have also visited A...

 Source: Elcano Royal Institute Lorenzo Trombetta Senior Middle Eastern Correspondent Senior MidSenior Middle Eastern Correspondentdle Eastern Correspondent Nowadays, especially after October 7, the entire Middle Eastern region is almost unanimously depicted as a battlefield marked by various trenches of attrition wars, poised to trigger a final and devastating sequence toward a total and large-scale conflict. Behind this image, often evoked in both Middle Eastern and Western public debates by local political elites and diplomatic circles, lies a more nuanced and complex reality. This reality consists of a series of tacit and unwritten agreements between rival actors, based on a convergence of strategic and long-lasting interests: the maintenance of power within a political status quo. This status quo, which appears to have been challenged by the unprecedented Hamas operation on October 7, 2023, won’t be easily or radically altered because none of the local, regional, or inter...

  Source: The Jerusalem Post Dr. Miad Nakhavali Founder of Middle East Analitika As Tehran remains in shock from Haniyeh's assassination, the countdown to Iran's retaliation has begun. Several scenarios are being considered for Iran's response. The first scenario involves targeting Israeli embassies, organizations, and institutions in neighboring countries, such as Azerbaijan or Iraqi Kurdistan. Another possibility is that Hezbollah, an Iranian proxy group, might launch attacks on Israeli territory. The third scenario is a direct attack from Iran on Israel. It now seems that Tehran is contemplating a fourth scenario: not retaliating at all if a peace agreement can be reached between Hamas and Israel.  From my perspective, whether Tehran chooses one of these scenarios or a combination of them, each option will carry a cost for the regime. However, It appears that Tehran may opt for a response similar to its previous actions—targeted attacks with minimal casualties, aimed spe...