Middle East Analitika

  Source: https://www.orfonline.org/ Is Iran Really on the Verge of Producing a Nuclear Bomb? Miad Nakhavali - CEO Middle East Analitika After decades of international debate over Iran's nuclear program, the question remains: is Iran truly on the brink of developing a nuclear bomb? Recent statements by Rafael Grossi, Director General of the IAEA, and EU leaders suggest there is little likelihood of reviving the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), also known as the Iran nuclear deal. Following the United States’ withdrawal from the agreement under President Trump in 2018, the accord has effectively collapsed. In response, Iran has accelerated its uranium enrichment, reaching levels of 60% purity and even higher, bringing it closer to the threshold required for weapons-grade material. Experts are divided on how quickly Iran could produce a nuclear bomb if it chooses to. While some estimate that it would take Iran six months to a year to achieve this, others argue the tim...

Source: en.interaffairs.ru Rethinking the Iran-Israel Conflict in a Changing Geopolitical Landscape Dr. Liora Hendelman-Baavur The enduring animosity between Iran and Israel is one of the most significant challenges in international relations. At its core is Iran’s categorical refusal to recognize Israel’s right to exist, a position that goes beyond geopolitical disputes and fundamentally denies Israel’s legitimacy. This hostility is further complicated by complex regional and strategic dynamics, making the conflict appear resistant to resolution. The Iranian regime’s commitment to Israel’s elimination solidified during the 1979 Islamic Revolution, stands in stark contrast to Israel’s unwavering focus on defending its security and existence. As a result, meaningful rapprochement seems unfeasible. Yet, history shows that even the most deeply entrenched conflicts—especially those with ideological or strategic stakes—can evolve toward coexistence, though lasting peace may remain distant a...

  Source:asia.nikkei.com Ivan Stoykovich  International Affairs & Political Risk Advisor  The proxy war between Russia and the US-led alliance/NATO alliance has been taking place in Ukraine since Jan. 2022. has entered its most dangerous phase so far. US-manufactured ATACMS long-range missiles were launched last night at Russian Bryansk Region (OS: Брянский район) from the existing HIMARS missile launcher systems in Eastern Ukraine and Odesa region. Regardless of the fact that the attack was symbolic and largely unsuccessful since 5 out of 6 missiles were destroyed, it is still a dangerous provocation that the Russian leadership will undoubtedly respond to accordingly. Based on the currently available information the response will be reciprocal, but in line with the usual MO, or "Russian manner "of conducting its military operations in Ukraine so far, which is basically a slow but steady "grind", not overreacting but maintaining steady pressure and conducting ...

  Source: hespress.com Professor Dr. Eric Lob Associate Professor at Florida International University President Donald Trump will confront heightened regional escalation when taking office if tensions in the Middle East continue along the same trajectory between November and January. Currently, the conflict continues between Israel and Hamas in Gaza and between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon, despite Tel Aviv having decapitated and degraded both adversaries. Concurrently, Iran is purportedly planning to launch another attack against Israel, with greater American assets deployed around the region, including on Israeli soil. So far, US diplomacy has failed to deliver a ceasefire in Gaza or Lebanon, secure the release of Israeli hostages in exchange for Palestinian prisoners, or dial down tensions between Tel Aviv and Tehran.  During the US presidential election on November 5th, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu dismissed Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, who favored a ceas...

Source: amuedge.com Mohammad Khatibi Political Commentator and Broadcast Journalist Short answer, not in the near future Iran is situated among numerous U.S. bases, has a NATO state neighbor, and troubled neighbors such as Iraq and Afghanistan. Persian Gulf States are in an active cold war with Iran and terrorism is rife in the Middle East. In contrast with U.S. allies in the region Tehran has no strategic ally and some call it “strategic loneliness”. China and Russia can only be relied on in tactical issues and have repeatedly sided with Iran’s rivals in the region.  Despite Western claims about Iran trying to maximize its “relative strength” which has an offensive nature, the leadership in Tehran has been aiming to maximize “relative security” in a troubled region.  After 9/11 looking at Iran’s actions in the Middle East “security” has been a top priority. Tehran has just reacted to the ongoing threats in the region mainly started by the U.S. Tehran has not been the initiato...

  Source: Financialtribune Syed Shahnawaz (Simon) Mohsin Independent Political and International Affairs Analyst Concerns of regional conflict in MENA threaten world energy security as the possibility of attacks on regional energy infrastructure rises. The region produces about 30% of global crude oil, the vast majority produced by Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, and UAE. Three major oil transits or chokepoints—the Strait of Hormuz, Bab-el Mandeb Strait, and the Suez Canal—are in this region. About 40 million barrels of fuel pass through these waterways. Some argue that markets may underestimate the geopolitical and potential energy supply disruption risks. However, nuances must be considered. Palestine and Lebanon are not major oil producers. Thus, conflicts there do not directly threaten oil supplies. Nonetheless, a prolonged conflict involving Iran could lead to a significant increase in oil prices. In early October, oil prices increased to a two-year high after the US Preside...

Source: Vox.com Dr. Miad Nakhavali Foudner of Middle East Analitika In recent days and weeks, Israel has intensified its military operations, targeting not only high-ranking officials of Hezbollah and Hamas but also major figures like Hassan Nasrallah, a key force in Iran's influence over Lebanon. These strikes have led many analysts to argue that while the material losses inflicted on Hamas and Hezbollah by Israel could potentially be refilled through external funding and support, the loss of their charismatic leaders presents a much more profound challenge. Both organizations are heavily dependent on the leadership and symbolic power of these figures to maintain their strategic direction and inspire their followers. However, it appears that both Hamas and Hezbollah may have “possibility plans” in place to address such leadership voids. It seems that these organizations have evolved into more structured military-like entities, complete with an internal hierarchy and succession pla...