Middle East Analitika

  Source: thetimes.com  Alia Yasmin Jawad   Geopolitical analyst and Senior Research Associate at the Middle East Institute Switzerland After decades of tumult, brutal conflicts, deep division, and instability, it was only after December 2017 that Iraq managed to start rebuilding itself and experience peace. Its geographic positioning, however, as well as the division between Shiia and Sunnis, Arabs and Kurds, and all the external interests involved, have kept Iraq susceptible to strife. Thus, the most recent developments in the Middle East have provoked general concern not only among the country’s leaders but also among a large proportion of Iraqi civilians. On the one hand, although the Iraqi state – despite its clear positioning on the matter - had not taken any particular official action against Israel since the latter started its war on Gaza in October of 2023, tensions spiked as the risk of a war between Iran and Israel intensified, and especially as Iranian-backed ...

  Source: latimes Syed Shahnawaz Mohsin  Political and International Affairs Analyst Two of the world's most heavily sanctioned nations, Russia and Iran, have signed a comprehensive cooperation agreement, deepening their partnership. The pact has been in the works for years and builds on a 2001 agreement between Russia and Iran that has been periodically renewed. The treaty is expected to remain in effect for 20 years. The treaty has the potential to change the political dynamics in the Middle East and create potentially significant risks for Israel and the US if either decides to launch a military attack on Iran. The treaty's signing comes just days before the inauguration of US President-elect Donald Trump, known for his hardline stance on Iran. The pact outlines a plan to expand cooperation in politics, security, trade, transport, and energy. In response to Western sanctions, both countries have ramped up trade activities. Since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, Tehran h...

Source: IWPR Uzbeks in Syria and Iraq: The Ghost of Arabophilia in Uzbekistan Saida Dariyeva Currently, more than a dozen militants claiming to be from Uzbekistan are actively covering events in Syria on social media. These individuals are assumed to be members of the Katiba Tawhid wal-Jihad group, which primarily comprises Uzbek fighters. So far, the Uzbek authorities have opened two criminal cases against individuals involved in militant activities in Syria. Most of the militants appearing in these videos are between 30 and 40 years old. On camera, they declare that participating in the Syrian conflict and achieving martyrdom are their ultimate goals. Speaking in Uzbek, they claim to have long prepared for the overthrow of the Assad regime. There is no verified information regarding where and with whose support the Uzbeks prepared for the ongoing conflict in Syria. Similarly, the total number of Uzbek fighters who have participated in the conflict remains unknown. Reports suggest tha...

  Source: Vox.com Qatar's role in achieving the cease-fire agreement between Israel and Hamas Dr. Ariel Admoni Over the past three decades, Qatar has demonstrated a keen ability to leverage its connections with terrorist organizations. Doha displayed this skill in August by facilitating German mediation with the Taliban. However, the most prominent example is undoubtedly its relationship with Hamas. Trump's entry into the White House presented a unique challenge for Qatar. During his previous term, Trump initiated opposition to Qatar, but in the latter part of his presidency, he came to rely on and support Qatar, even maintaining the American base there.  Against this backdrop, Qatar needed to demonstrate to the Trump administration that it was in its best interest to continue relying on Qatar to manage relations with Hamas. Qatar was aided by the fact that many of the new appointees in Trump's administration were sympathetic to Qatar. To strengthen this, Qatar intensified ...

  Source: https://www.orfonline.org/ Is Iran Really on the Verge of Producing a Nuclear Bomb? Miad Nakhavali - CEO Middle East Analitika After decades of international debate over Iran's nuclear program, the question remains: is Iran truly on the brink of developing a nuclear bomb? Recent statements by Rafael Grossi, Director General of the IAEA, and EU leaders suggest there is little likelihood of reviving the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), also known as the Iran nuclear deal. Following the United States’ withdrawal from the agreement under President Trump in 2018, the accord has effectively collapsed. In response, Iran has accelerated its uranium enrichment, reaching levels of 60% purity and even higher, bringing it closer to the threshold required for weapons-grade material. Experts are divided on how quickly Iran could produce a nuclear bomb if it chooses to. While some estimate that it would take Iran six months to a year to achieve this, others argue the tim...

Source: en.interaffairs.ru Rethinking the Iran-Israel Conflict in a Changing Geopolitical Landscape Dr. Liora Hendelman-Baavur The enduring animosity between Iran and Israel is one of the most significant challenges in international relations. At its core is Iran’s categorical refusal to recognize Israel’s right to exist, a position that goes beyond geopolitical disputes and fundamentally denies Israel’s legitimacy. This hostility is further complicated by complex regional and strategic dynamics, making the conflict appear resistant to resolution. The Iranian regime’s commitment to Israel’s elimination solidified during the 1979 Islamic Revolution, stands in stark contrast to Israel’s unwavering focus on defending its security and existence. As a result, meaningful rapprochement seems unfeasible. Yet, history shows that even the most deeply entrenched conflicts—especially those with ideological or strategic stakes—can evolve toward coexistence, though lasting peace may remain distant a...