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Prospects for Regime Change in Iran: Myth or Reality? - by Dr. Eric Lob

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  Professor Dr. Eric Lob Associate Professor at Florida International University The probabilities of regime change in Iran in the post-war period appear to be low. Israel and the United States primarily targeted Iran’s military and nuclear infrastructure and personnel. Despite threatening to assassinate Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in his bunker, they refrained from doing so and largely left the political establishment intact. One exception was Ali Shamkhani, Khamenei’s advisor, who oversaw five rounds of nuclear negotiations with the United States that Iran abruptly canceled after Israel had attacked it on June 13th. The fact that Israel targeted Shamkhani indicated that it intended to disrupt and sabotage the negotiations. President Donald Trump and his administration may have instructed Israel to spare Iran’s leadership to gain greater leverage in the negotiations within the context of coercive diplomacy. They may have also done so due to the American debacles in Afghanistan and...
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Russian propaganda against Uzbekistan in media after starting the war in Ukraine - by Saida Dariyeva

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  Source: caspian.institute  Saida Dariyeva Russian propaganda against Uzbekistan in the media after starting the war in Ukraine Zakhar Prilepin , a notable Russian public figure, made a startling  statement  during a press conference in Moscow on December 20, 2023. Advocating for the Soviet Union’s restoration and Russian language imposition in former Soviet states, his remarks have  resonated  deeply within public discourse in Uzbekistan. Prilepin’s televised remark that Russia could claim territories with significant Russian-speaking populations mentioned Uzbekistan in particular, given the large number of Uzbek labor migrants in Russia, and triggered widespread indignation.  Prilepin’s  exact words  as reported by local newspaper Daryo.uz:  I am actually sincerely advocating that these territories, from where migrant workers come to us, should be annexed and taught the Russian language on the spot, not here, but there, in Uzbe...
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Political system in Iran and decision making on the nuclear program - by dr Miad Nakhavali

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Source: ft.com Political system in Iran and decision making on the nuclear program Miad Nakhavali - CEO Middle East Analitika To understand Iran's political system after the 1979 revolution, it is essential to analyse domestic sources that reflect Ayatollah Khomeini's ideology and his vision for the country's governance. Available sources indicate that until approximately two years before the Islamic Revolution, Khomeini viewed governance not as an ultimate goal but rather as a means to implement divine laws and establish a just society based on peace and public service. Within this framework, Islamism appeared to take precedence over republicanism in his rhetoric. However, various factors—such as his exile in Paris and engagement with opposition groups resisting the Shah’s regime—seem to have influenced his outlook, prompting him (at least on a formal level) to incorporate elements of republicanism and electoral processes into Iran’s political structure (Saleh Abadi, 2011,...
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War or Diplomacy with Iran? What Do Americans Think? - by Dr. Eric Lob

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  Source: axios.com Professor Dr. Eric Lob Associate Professor at Florida International University On Saturday, April 12th, the United States and Iran will hold talks in Oman on restricting Tehran’s nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief. Earlier in the week, President Donald Trump stated that the talks would be direct, while Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei said they would be indirect. Trump also increased economic sanctions against Tehran to gain greater leverage in the talks. Before the talks were confirmed, Trump had delivered a letter through the United Arab Emirates to Khamenei demanding that he agrees to negotiate or confront catastrophic consequences in the form of military strikes. Since winning the popular vote in the US presidential election last November, Trump has claimed that he possesses a popular mandate to pursue his domestic and foreign policy agenda. As the United States enters another round of nuclear negotiations with Iran, the question remains whethe...
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U.S. strikes on Yemen fail to deter Ansarallah - by Mohammad Khatibi

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Source: brookings Mohammad Khatibi Political Commentator and Broadcast Journalist There is no end in sight for Yemeni operations in the Red Sea amid Israel’s continued onslaught on Gaza. In recent weeks, the U.S. intensified airstrikes on different locations and cities in Yemen, but these have failed to deter the Houthis from conducting more operations. Saudi-led coalition bombed the country for more than a decade but to no avail, and Riyadh came to the table with a reduced demand, and a fragile peace was achieved. The reason for the failure seemed to be a lack of ground presence and the failure of Saudi-Emirati-backed groups to defeat the Houthis.  Now, there are reports of plans to enable these groups to start a war against Sana’a. Reports suggest that the U.S. is planning to provide these groups with aerial support. The plan's effectiveness should be questioned due to previous failure. During the Yemen civil war, Saudi-Emirati-backed groups started to take action against ea...
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Israel’s Role in Weakening Ankara - by Dr. Babak Shafiee

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  Source: en.globes.co Containing Turkey After Syria: Geopolitical Rivalry and Israel’s Role in Weakening Ankara Dr. Babak Shafiee PhD in Geopolitics, Kharazmi University, Tehran, Iran The geopolitical landscape of the Middle East has undergone a dramatic transformation following the erosion of the Syrian government's control. This event not only marked a turning point in Syria’s internal dynamics but also triggered significant shifts in the broader regional balance of power. With Iran reducing its direct military footprint and Russia scaling back its involvement due to its war in Ukraine, a power vacuum has emerged, attracting regional and international actors seeking to expand their influence. A significant consequence of this power shift has been Turkey's increased presence in northern Syria, including its alleged support for certain armed factions, such as Tahrir al-Sham, led by Ahmad al-Sahara. Concurrently, Israel has intensified its military activities near Damascus, ai...
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The South Caucasus in the Current Geopolitical Framework - by Nina Miholjcic-Ivkovic

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  Source: aze.media The South Caucasus in the Current Geopolitical Framework Nina Miholjcic-Ivkovic Independent International Relations Researcher The South Caucasus, comprising three independent states, Azerbaijan, Armenia, and Georgia, is a strategically significant region at the crossroads of Europe, Asia, and the Middle East. The region has remained an important place for the contesting interests of regional and global powers. In the evolving geopolitical landscape on a global and regional level, including Trump`s return and the recalibration of the US foreign policy, the ongoing Russo-Ukrainian war, and the interests of Turkey and Iran in the region, assessing the South Caucasus' position is a simultaneously fascinating and complex topic.  Examining the U.S. policy toward this region is crucial due to the recent shift in American foreign policy under Trump, which could have wide-reaching consequences for regional stability and the global balance of power. Trump’s oft...
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