Middle East Analitika

Richa Bhattarai  Expert in International Conflict Management In the media today, the dominant narrative revolves around the hostile and contentious relationships of Iran with both Israel and the United States, while the United States and Israel maintain strategic alliances. However, what often goes unnoticed is the shared interests between Iran and both the United States and Israel not only during the Shah's regime but also under the post-revolutionary Islamic regime. The complexities of this trio can be simplified if we focus on mutual interests rather than conflicting attitudes. Setting aside the contentious issue of Israel's existence, especially in light of events post-October 7, 2024, it becomes crucial to examine whether the Iran-Israel relationship is inherently adversarial. The answer is mixed and largely depends on who is leading the government in Iran. Historical evidence indicates that during the Shah's regime, Iran and Israel had a relationship characterized by

Source: Reuters Harshit Sharma   Middle East Research Analyst Keywords: USA; Iran; Donald Trump; Kamala Harris; Masoud Pezeshkian; JCPOA Introduction The upcoming presidential elections in the United States of America are being closely watched by Iran’s strategic community. Masoud Pezeshkian, a reformist who became the ninth President of the Islamic Republic of Iran in the runoff elections held on July 5, 2024, campaigned in favor of more diplomatic engagement with the USA in order to lift the economic sanctions that are crippling Iran’s economy for a long time. The outcome of the presidential elections in the USA will play a major role in whether or not Pezeshkian will be able to deliver on his promise.   Republicans Vs Democrats If the Republicans under the presidentship of Donald Trump make a comeback, then the possibility of a deal between the USA and Iran looks bleak. During his previous tenure, Trump not only withdrew the USA from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in

  Source: The Jerusalem Post Ariel Admoni PhD researcher at Bar-Ilan University and Middle East commentator Qatar mediation is a crucial component of Doha's foreign policy. The mediation in various conflicts wasn't just in the Middle East but rather around the globe, even with remote states. During 2023 and the Gaza war, Qatar also mediated between Russia and Ukraine and received compliments from both sides. Even before the Gaza war, the unique international status of Qatar, as reflected in its role as a mediator, was present in its mediation between Iran and the U.S. on the one hand, and between the Taliban government in Afghanistan and the international community on the other hand. The presence of the terror organizations in Doha was the reason Qatar became a key player in the mediation between Hamas and Israel. This connection was a geo-political asset in the hands of Doha. As a way to handle the mild international pressure, Qatari authorities claimed their presence was need

  Source: New Internationalist (Loredana Sanguiliano/Shutterstock) Ayiza Salman International Relations Researcher Europe held one of its most momentous elections last week in Britain where socially progressive governance dominated the polls over the surging right-wing populism cursing the rest of Europe with its ultra-nationalistic ambitions and acute foreign policy implications for regions like the Middle East, where the Israeli genocide is entering its tenth month of brutality and the death toll of Palestinians could be reaching 186,000 civilians.  In the UK, the center-left Labor Party, under Keir Starmer, won a landslide victory in general elections, marking the end of 14 years of disastrous Conservative rule under the Tory government. As his first announcement after holding office, Starmer declared the controversial Rwanda Policy, designed to fly asylum seekers from Britain to Rwanda, dead and buried . More significantly, despite being a staunch supporter of Israel’s right to de

  Professor Eric Lob Associate Professor at Florida International University The outcome of the Iranian election could impact the Israel-Hamas war and the chance of its expansion. At a superficial level, one could surmise that a victory for the conservative candidate, Saeed Jalili, would create a more confrontational policy toward Israel and consequently expand the conflict. According to this logic, if the reformist candidate, Masoud Pezeshkian, were to prevail then that would parlay into a more conciliatory policy and a higher probability of de-escalation.  While these assumptions may possess some validity, they are complicated by the fact that the supreme leader has the ultimate say over foreign policy. Under his leadership, and since start of the war, Iran has walked a fine line between saving face and maintaining deterrence while avoiding a direct confrontation with the conventionally superior adversaries of Israel and the United States for the sake of regime survival. Even under t

Dr. Tom Walsh  Lecturer and Tutor of International Relations and Politics & Middle East Researcher The New (capitalisation intentional) Labour government has been met with optimistic eyebrow raising around the world. A so-called progressive party back in charge of a G8 country, at a glance, signals hope. The new foreign secretary, David Lammy, has been spreading his message of 'progressive realism' for a while now. He defines this, and I quote, as: "using realist means to pursue progressive ends. For the British government, that requires tough-minded honesty about the United Kingdom, the balance of power, and the state of the world. But instead of using the logic of realism solely to accumulate power, progressive realism uses it in the service of just goals — for example climate change, defending democracy, and advancing the world’s economic development. It is the pursuit of ideals without the delusions about what is achievable". Typical of centrist policy, this v

Damien Bruckard  CEO of Geopolitical Strategy and former diplomat The recent French legislative elections may have left a shock in the media, but there will be almost no discernible impact on French foreign policy, including towards the Middle East. In France, foreign policy powers vest in the President with the National Assembly having very little influence over its direction. For this reason, even during traditional "cohabitation" periods in French politics -- where the President comes from one party and the government, formed in government -- comes from another, the composition of parliament has almost no impact on France's international posture. While the socialist left coalition and the far-right parties both did well in the elections -- each with roughly a third of seats, with centrists also receiving about a third -- the fact that the parliament is divided will mean that members will have even less influence over foreign policy than usual. Furthermore, we are unlik

Prof. Shahram Akbarzadeh Convenor of the Middle East Studies Forum The voters favoured Pezeshkian because the alternative was so much worse. Jalili promised more of the same. That meant confrontation with the US and Israel, greater sanctions, and high inflation. Faced with 4 more years of internal and external crisis, voters have favoured Pezeshkian who promises to de-escalate tensions and run the government more professionally, not along ideological lines. Prospects of Change: There are some red lines that Pezeshkian will not cross: Iran’s support for Hezbullah and Hamas will continue because that is engrained in the ideological foundations of the Islamic Republic of Iran.  Iran claims to represent and lead the global Muslim community against American imperialism and its local agent: Israel. As a result Pezeshkian will not challenge these red-lines but will avoid overtly antagonistic statements. He is likely to avoid megaphone diplomacy that was the style of the conservatives. They to

Security situation in Serbia after an attempted terrorist attack on Saturday Name and surname: Ilija Gavrilović Affiliation: Master’s in International Affairs, PhD student at the Faculty of Political Science University of Belgrade ____________________________________________________________________________________ Last Saturday, in Belgrade, Serbian capital, an attempted terrorist attack took place, the circumstances and motives of which are still not fully known. A previously unknown man, a member of radical Islamic Wahhabi movement, attacked a Serbian policeman who was securing the Israeli Embassy and was killed in the exchange of fire, while the policeman was wounded.  Such events in Serbia are very rare, except for last year's massacres in Belgrade and Mladenovac/Smederevo, but behind which there are completely different motives of the crimes. That is why the attack has rightly worried the public in Serbia and reopened the issue of religious extremism and the activities of the